* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 40 43 43 41 40 37 34 33 34 35 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 40 43 43 41 40 37 34 33 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 32 32 32 30 28 26 23 20 18 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 3 2 5 3 7 6 9 13 16 14 17 8 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -5 -4 0 4 3 3 1 3 6 9 5 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 58 64 53 40 64 137 162 160 152 122 97 128 125 148 167 168 227 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.3 26.3 26.7 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 142 141 141 141 142 138 130 129 130 129 124 125 130 132 132 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 56 53 53 51 47 44 41 37 37 36 40 40 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 11 11 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -14 -8 -8 -10 6 -2 5 16 30 34 29 23 41 45 42 35 200 MB DIV -20 -31 -37 -33 -31 13 3 24 38 34 32 38 3 0 3 12 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 1 2 6 4 3 3 1 LAND (KM) 1662 1690 1718 1730 1743 1739 1688 1638 1597 1603 1642 1729 1810 1938 2103 2225 2082 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.8 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.2 18.3 18.2 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.2 125.5 125.7 125.9 126.0 126.2 126.2 126.2 126.3 126.7 127.3 128.3 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 12 12 11 12 13 9 4 4 4 3 1 1 5 5 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 11. 10. 7. 4. 3. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 125.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.91 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.01 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.0% 15.3% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% Logistic: 1.9% 17.2% 5.7% 2.9% 2.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 12.1% 7.0% 4.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/15/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##