* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/15/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 69 76 83 94 93 88 79 69 58 45 44 43 45 47 50 V (KT) LAND 55 62 69 76 83 94 93 88 79 69 51 43 41 36 32 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 73 79 88 92 90 84 75 55 48 46 41 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 3 3 5 9 7 5 8 5 10 11 17 29 22 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 -1 -1 3 0 8 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 108 193 175 190 180 206 180 200 177 217 255 278 273 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.1 27.8 30.3 31.0 29.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 151 152 154 149 144 141 132 140 166 167 153 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 -51.0 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -51.2 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 10 7 9 6 7 6 8 5 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 60 59 57 53 48 42 41 39 36 31 25 17 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 22 23 25 23 23 20 17 13 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -1 9 25 29 36 27 8 24 6 17 12 37 6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 41 37 43 27 34 -17 -22 -14 -2 3 0 -10 -24 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -6 9 -2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 455 450 423 395 367 300 217 136 103 62 -24 10 51 -27 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.2 21.0 22.1 23.1 23.9 24.8 25.7 26.6 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.6 109.7 109.8 109.9 110.0 110.1 110.5 111.0 111.4 111.7 111.5 110.9 110.3 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 5 5 4 5 5 2 7 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 14 14 15 9 6 5 2 6 28 32 14 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 5. 2. -3. -9. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 28. 39. 38. 33. 24. 14. 3. -10. -11. -12. -10. -8. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.6 109.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/15/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 13.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 11.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.91 16.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 6.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 325.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 -9.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 14.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 9.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.6% 74.1% 67.2% 61.6% 50.4% 46.4% 51.5% 0.0% Logistic: 21.9% 20.5% 15.8% 11.0% 8.3% 14.5% 18.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 2.3% 17.4% 6.1% 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.6% 37.3% 29.7% 25.1% 20.1% 20.3% 23.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/15/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##