* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142017 09/15/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 44 51 54 56 56 54 52 51 49 49 48 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 44 51 54 56 56 54 52 51 49 49 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 39 43 47 49 50 50 46 41 36 31 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 3 6 13 15 12 4 14 26 35 35 37 40 37 42 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 6 3 0 0 0 10 7 -1 -2 2 6 2 -1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 6 21 45 349 348 1 340 269 273 299 296 303 287 267 255 282 282 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 144 143 141 135 131 129 130 136 141 146 140 141 136 133 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 143 140 137 130 126 125 127 134 140 146 138 133 121 120 118 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -54.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.7 -54.3 -54.0 -54.6 -54.7 -55.3 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 63 64 64 60 59 58 57 57 62 62 66 57 56 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 13 14 14 15 13 13 12 10 7 6 5 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -49 -46 -33 -35 -26 -22 -21 -23 -26 -21 -28 -20 -13 33 38 -10 200 MB DIV 40 22 22 61 34 -39 -6 5 -18 -11 11 24 42 37 57 37 22 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -2 -3 -4 0 -2 -4 -5 -3 0 3 8 7 6 6 LAND (KM) 1082 1194 1301 1380 1460 1596 1720 1716 1687 1696 1550 1437 1344 1721 1734 1727 1837 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.3 13.0 13.8 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.6 27.8 28.9 29.7 30.5 31.8 33.0 34.4 36.2 38.2 40.4 42.7 45.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 12 9 8 7 6 6 8 9 11 11 12 12 10 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 19 28 28 24 15 10 8 9 19 21 24 38 28 28 21 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 21. 24. 26. 26. 24. 22. 21. 19. 19. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 26.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/15/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.74 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.4% 10.8% 7.4% 6.8% 10.0% 11.4% 16.0% Logistic: 6.6% 20.2% 13.6% 2.6% 0.8% 3.4% 4.4% 3.2% Bayesian: 1.7% 6.2% 5.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% Consensus: 4.6% 14.2% 9.8% 3.4% 2.6% 5.1% 5.6% 6.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/15/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 44 51 54 56 56 54 52 51 49 49 48 47 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 41 48 51 53 53 51 49 48 46 46 45 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 36 43 46 48 48 46 44 43 41 41 40 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 34 37 39 39 37 35 34 32 32 31 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT