* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/15/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 63 65 65 67 74 76 80 80 76 68 56 45 39 34 V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 63 65 65 67 74 76 80 80 76 68 56 45 39 34 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 63 64 66 70 74 76 74 68 61 56 49 44 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 23 26 22 25 23 30 29 28 25 28 19 23 21 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 -1 1 -1 -1 3 3 -4 -3 -1 -5 -2 -7 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 332 328 309 296 298 291 265 233 228 213 238 211 223 217 233 216 213 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.8 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.1 28.2 27.4 26.8 26.7 26.8 19.9 18.1 20.0 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 148 157 163 160 160 152 138 128 121 120 122 78 70 77 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 129 136 140 136 134 127 115 106 100 99 101 70 64 68 74 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -53.5 -54.4 -55.3 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 6 4 4 3 4 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 49 53 56 55 56 56 56 60 62 65 67 68 62 56 45 39 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 22 24 24 26 31 33 37 39 38 34 29 24 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -10 -2 -9 -5 25 39 58 77 79 68 75 79 67 44 33 4 200 MB DIV 18 18 16 18 41 84 28 57 61 74 11 95 68 53 20 -5 -1 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -1 -3 -10 12 15 19 20 17 20 18 5 -5 -3 -1 4 LAND (KM) 687 716 752 796 839 814 702 609 526 447 419 460 402 151 180 202 269 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.1 26.5 27.0 27.4 28.5 29.6 30.8 32.1 33.5 34.9 36.3 37.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.3 69.1 69.9 70.5 71.2 72.0 72.2 72.0 71.8 71.6 71.2 70.6 70.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 7 7 7 7 7 10 9 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 41 28 29 35 38 37 38 36 25 10 5 24 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 7. 10. 15. 17. 16. 9. 1. -6. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 7. 14. 16. 20. 20. 16. 8. -4. -15. -21. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.7 68.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/15/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.40 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 467.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 15.2% 10.6% 8.8% 8.5% 10.5% 9.1% 8.1% Logistic: 5.9% 11.7% 7.8% 9.1% 5.1% 7.4% 4.8% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 9.3% 6.2% 6.0% 4.5% 6.0% 4.6% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/15/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/15/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 2( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 63 63 65 65 67 74 76 80 80 76 68 56 45 39 34 18HR AGO 60 59 61 61 63 63 65 72 74 78 78 74 66 54 43 37 32 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 58 58 60 67 69 73 73 69 61 49 38 32 27 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 52 54 61 63 67 67 63 55 43 32 26 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT