* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/15/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 38 43 50 52 54 53 52 52 51 49 50 50 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 38 43 50 52 54 53 52 52 51 49 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 35 36 36 35 33 31 29 26 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 7 6 5 7 8 13 5 7 11 9 7 9 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -6 -7 -7 -4 -1 2 6 8 4 6 3 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 56 34 32 42 39 41 65 60 97 67 71 82 107 91 122 145 209 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.3 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 145 145 143 141 143 143 143 141 138 137 132 126 128 129 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 58 60 60 58 54 51 48 47 47 48 43 42 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 15 15 17 16 17 16 16 15 14 14 13 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 -9 -10 -12 0 0 11 5 23 32 29 17 23 38 26 30 200 MB DIV 10 -3 -14 -16 -18 -5 16 14 21 35 19 -5 4 22 15 16 11 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 -5 -2 -1 0 1 4 5 5 6 LAND (KM) 1576 1601 1627 1660 1692 1742 1758 1745 1723 1691 1657 1646 1629 1720 1844 1999 2127 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.9 124.3 124.7 125.1 125.4 125.9 126.1 126.1 126.1 126.0 126.0 126.2 126.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 5 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 4 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 30. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 20. 22. 24. 23. 22. 22. 21. 19. 20. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 123.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/15/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.81 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.83 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 17.9% 14.7% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 15.2% Logistic: 0.6% 4.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.6% 5.4% 3.9% 0.1% 0.3% 5.1% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/15/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##