* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 32 36 43 48 56 55 57 52 52 51 51 50 50 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 32 36 43 48 56 55 57 52 52 51 51 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 35 37 38 37 34 32 30 28 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 10 10 14 11 13 8 5 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -5 -5 -3 -3 -1 1 1 3 6 1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 81 65 60 49 47 78 14 82 86 92 71 78 79 119 134 185 200 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.1 26.9 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 144 145 145 143 142 143 143 143 142 141 133 131 125 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 60 58 59 56 56 52 48 46 44 41 34 35 35 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 15 18 16 17 14 13 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -9 -15 -17 -18 -10 -7 7 4 14 21 29 26 41 46 31 27 200 MB DIV 25 6 -1 -3 -16 -12 -13 20 12 43 -4 -4 -20 -16 4 2 -5 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 -2 0 2 4 7 6 7 LAND (KM) 1544 1568 1592 1621 1649 1706 1747 1748 1743 1730 1708 1674 1648 1665 1736 1852 1958 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.3 123.7 124.1 124.5 124.8 125.4 125.8 125.9 126.0 126.0 126.0 126.0 126.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 5 4 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 3. 4. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 18. 26. 25. 27. 22. 22. 21. 21. 20. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 123.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.78 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 14.7% 13.5% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 14.1% Logistic: 0.4% 3.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.0% 4.8% 3.6% 0.1% 0.2% 4.7% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##