* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/14/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 62 62 62 64 68 73 76 78 75 72 68 62 53 54 V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 62 62 62 64 68 73 76 78 75 72 68 62 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 59 60 60 61 64 68 71 72 69 63 58 55 52 50 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 18 17 14 16 20 21 20 25 33 37 35 24 22 17 32 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 3 8 5 0 2 2 2 3 -4 -4 -1 -3 -3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 358 3 350 319 319 291 292 265 244 229 228 231 225 211 226 219 234 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.3 28.4 27.7 27.1 26.1 27.2 21.6 20.8 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 150 154 156 155 155 158 155 141 131 124 114 127 86 84 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 128 132 135 136 133 132 133 131 118 109 103 95 105 77 76 70 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.5 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 4 4 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 49 52 52 52 55 59 58 57 61 61 68 66 70 56 50 40 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 24 26 25 25 27 30 33 36 40 40 41 41 40 38 42 850 MB ENV VOR -6 7 -7 -20 -17 -19 -5 26 50 66 90 79 83 82 97 118 151 200 MB DIV -10 18 -3 6 17 8 78 60 63 59 65 28 60 36 53 31 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 0 11 16 14 17 7 5 0 4 0 -18 LAND (KM) 683 672 669 682 706 793 891 805 699 619 560 537 547 398 259 270 227 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.7 26.0 26.9 27.9 28.9 30.1 31.5 32.8 34.0 35.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.2 66.9 67.5 68.3 69.0 70.2 71.1 71.5 71.5 71.1 70.7 70.2 69.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 8 10 14 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 36 39 46 47 39 36 41 41 40 30 17 7 2 18 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. 1. 4. 8. 11. 15. 15. 15. 14. 11. 7. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 15. 12. 8. 2. -7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.8 66.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/14/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.36 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.39 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 508.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.40 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 13.9% 9.6% 8.1% 8.0% 10.0% 8.6% 9.3% Logistic: 5.2% 10.3% 7.2% 5.8% 4.4% 4.4% 2.7% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 8.6% 5.8% 4.6% 4.1% 4.8% 3.8% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/14/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/14/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 60 62 62 62 64 68 73 76 78 75 72 68 62 53 54 18HR AGO 60 59 59 61 61 61 63 67 72 75 77 74 71 67 61 52 53 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 58 58 60 64 69 72 74 71 68 64 58 49 50 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 50 52 56 61 64 66 63 60 56 50 41 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT