* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MAX EP162017 09/14/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 55 58 63 64 65 66 66 67 69 71 73 74 76 79 V (KT) LAND 45 50 53 44 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 46 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 336 1 8 353 356 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.7 29.3 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 165 161 157 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 9 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 63 61 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 6 5 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -10 -25 -23 -16 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 110 80 64 55 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 120 71 23 -25 -73 -140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.2 100.6 99.9 99.1 98.4 96.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 26 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 13. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 22. 24. 27. 28. 29. 31. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.2 101.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162017 MAX 09/14/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 16.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 12.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.57 9.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 9.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -10.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 9.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.84 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.9% 69.9% 61.0% 49.8% 32.6% 28.0% 62.7% 45.5% Logistic: 23.7% 42.9% 37.6% 26.5% 16.6% 32.2% 39.4% 14.1% Bayesian: 7.5% 28.9% 22.1% 10.3% 1.8% 7.8% 5.9% 0.1% Consensus: 20.7% 47.2% 40.2% 28.9% 17.0% 22.7% 36.0% 19.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162017 MAX 09/14/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##