* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/14/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 48 52 53 53 55 54 56 58 58 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 48 52 53 53 55 54 56 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 30 31 32 34 36 37 37 37 37 37 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 14 13 11 9 6 5 9 7 9 6 9 8 4 3 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -4 -3 -1 2 3 6 3 3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 78 93 100 100 96 85 100 59 58 88 77 58 52 50 68 36 59 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.5 28.4 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 149 148 147 145 145 144 142 143 144 143 143 135 147 138 135 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 66 64 61 59 59 56 55 56 56 56 54 52 53 47 55 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 14 15 15 14 16 15 14 15 14 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 55 38 16 1 -8 -20 -26 -24 -17 -11 -12 -1 10 0 -9 -5 -4 200 MB DIV 46 39 19 10 9 -8 -6 -12 -8 16 38 28 16 -4 -11 -14 -6 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -5 -5 -1 0 1 5 7 LAND (KM) 1423 1453 1485 1514 1544 1607 1656 1680 1688 1688 1673 1627 1596 1554 1687 1773 1835 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.9 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.2 121.8 122.3 122.8 123.2 124.1 124.7 125.0 125.1 125.1 125.0 124.7 124.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 4 2 6 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 10 6 13 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 22. 23. 23. 25. 24. 26. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 121.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 20.0% 15.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 15.6% Logistic: 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.3% 5.1% 3.7% 0.0% 0.1% 4.9% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##