* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/13/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 62 60 59 56 57 56 60 60 63 64 66 63 62 60 56 V (KT) LAND 65 64 62 60 59 56 57 56 60 60 63 64 66 63 62 60 56 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 62 61 59 58 57 58 60 61 60 59 57 54 51 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 20 21 21 17 18 25 21 27 35 40 40 26 14 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 6 3 1 5 0 1 2 5 0 0 2 0 -7 -4 3 SHEAR DIR 358 3 354 347 346 315 316 308 280 266 241 239 224 223 210 235 266 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.4 28.4 27.7 27.5 26.9 27.2 27.1 23.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 146 146 147 156 157 154 157 141 131 129 123 126 123 92 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 123 124 125 127 136 136 132 134 119 110 107 103 103 100 79 86 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 9 8 7 7 6 4 5 2 4 700-500 MB RH 51 49 49 49 51 53 57 56 57 59 61 57 54 45 41 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 22 21 21 21 23 22 25 25 29 32 36 37 37 37 34 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -12 -16 -17 -9 -22 -13 -18 20 28 49 65 91 61 64 52 60 200 MB DIV 2 -5 -4 -5 -8 33 18 44 72 44 43 31 78 6 0 -30 -8 700-850 TADV 8 3 0 -3 -4 -4 -4 0 13 12 9 9 12 4 0 -1 2 LAND (KM) 768 749 727 712 699 711 799 901 801 705 658 645 659 498 422 344 390 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.3 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.9 26.9 27.9 29.2 30.7 32.0 33.3 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.6 65.8 65.9 66.3 66.8 68.2 69.6 70.7 71.1 70.7 70.1 69.3 68.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 4 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 8 6 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 37 36 38 48 37 40 41 28 19 17 8 11 12 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -2. -2. 3. 6. 10. 10. 9. 8. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -8. -9. -5. -5. -2. -1. 1. -2. -3. -5. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.4 65.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.25 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.82 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 575.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.33 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 13.1% 9.3% 7.9% 7.7% 9.0% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 7.8% 5.8% 2.3% 1.3% 3.2% 2.9% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 7.2% 5.1% 3.4% 3.0% 4.1% 3.8% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/13/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 62 60 59 56 57 56 60 60 63 64 66 63 62 60 56 18HR AGO 65 64 62 60 59 56 57 56 60 60 63 64 66 63 62 60 56 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 58 55 56 55 59 59 62 63 65 62 61 59 55 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 51 52 51 55 55 58 59 61 58 57 55 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT