* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/13/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 62 59 56 56 56 55 58 59 62 60 59 55 53 45 V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 62 59 56 56 56 55 58 59 62 60 59 55 53 45 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 64 62 58 56 54 53 53 53 53 53 52 49 47 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 25 27 27 23 22 26 31 25 35 34 41 31 26 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 9 5 3 1 4 -1 -8 -2 0 0 -7 -4 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 356 349 357 2 360 349 323 308 300 285 265 251 258 241 234 225 231 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.0 29.0 28.4 27.6 28.0 27.4 26.0 27.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 146 147 148 156 157 150 150 141 130 135 128 113 127 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 124 122 124 128 136 136 128 127 119 109 110 108 95 104 95 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.0 1.5 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 53 51 53 50 48 50 52 56 58 59 59 63 62 65 64 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 24 24 22 23 24 24 23 24 26 31 32 34 34 36 32 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -35 -15 -18 -17 -15 -27 -30 -17 3 5 43 44 63 56 43 42 200 MB DIV -52 -39 7 -11 -25 -13 -3 17 10 86 41 50 44 37 34 60 8 700-850 TADV 3 9 11 6 3 -3 -4 0 -4 15 15 16 12 15 6 5 0 LAND (KM) 825 806 790 771 751 709 724 800 914 836 770 748 755 527 360 404 370 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.4 26.0 26.9 28.0 29.3 30.6 31.9 33.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.2 65.9 65.6 65.7 65.8 66.8 68.1 69.5 70.3 70.4 69.9 69.0 68.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 2 3 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 5 9 8 8 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 36 36 36 38 50 37 38 36 27 13 34 11 0 41 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 9. 10. 9. 10. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -9. -9. -10. -7. -6. -3. -5. -6. -10. -12. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 26.3 66.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.18 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.03 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 577.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 9.9% 7.3% 6.6% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 3.2% 3.1% 1.5% 0.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 4.4% 3.5% 2.7% 0.2% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/13/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 64 62 59 56 56 56 55 58 59 62 60 59 55 53 45 18HR AGO 65 64 64 62 59 56 56 56 55 58 59 62 60 59 55 53 45 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 56 53 53 53 52 55 56 59 57 56 52 50 42 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 49 49 49 48 51 52 55 53 52 48 46 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT