* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/12/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 67 65 64 62 60 60 58 60 61 62 62 64 65 60 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 67 65 64 62 60 60 58 60 61 62 62 64 65 60 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 65 65 64 61 60 59 58 58 60 61 62 61 60 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 22 22 23 19 17 21 19 23 19 25 29 36 35 31 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 4 5 8 5 3 0 0 1 5 3 3 0 -3 4 SHEAR DIR 347 355 344 339 352 343 341 313 311 297 285 261 239 235 223 237 214 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.0 27.9 27.5 26.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 150 151 149 146 153 159 161 163 160 156 151 133 133 123 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 128 129 126 124 132 139 140 140 134 130 127 110 118 111 97 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 8 7 7 4 3 700-500 MB RH 59 55 54 52 50 46 49 52 58 58 57 56 61 60 52 62 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 23 21 25 25 24 24 24 26 27 29 32 36 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -38 -38 -38 -29 -28 -20 -30 -27 -19 9 19 53 75 103 66 119 200 MB DIV -3 -39 -46 -43 -14 -9 9 0 0 17 90 57 53 54 74 68 83 700-850 TADV 11 7 8 11 9 4 -2 -7 -1 -1 10 14 11 15 6 3 9 LAND (KM) 906 897 892 869 850 803 753 735 788 882 798 701 609 573 472 675 528 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.8 27.8 28.8 29.8 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.7 67.1 66.5 66.1 65.7 65.7 66.7 68.1 69.6 71.1 71.8 71.9 72.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 3 3 5 7 8 7 5 5 8 6 17 25 14 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 36 38 37 36 44 51 39 45 40 38 36 20 15 9 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -12. -13. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. -0. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -0. 0. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.6 67.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.31 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.33 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.01 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 495.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.41 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 14.4% 10.3% 9.1% 8.8% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.1% 8.8% 10.1% 7.1% 2.5% 2.8% 1.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 7.8% 6.9% 5.4% 3.8% 4.0% 0.5% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/12/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 66 67 65 64 62 60 60 58 60 61 62 62 64 65 60 18HR AGO 65 64 64 65 63 62 60 58 58 56 58 59 60 60 62 63 58 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 60 59 57 55 55 53 55 56 57 57 59 60 55 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 52 50 48 48 46 48 49 50 50 52 53 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT