* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/12/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 61 61 62 63 64 65 68 71 75 77 76 76 74 71 69 V (KT) LAND 65 61 61 61 62 63 64 65 68 71 75 77 76 76 74 71 69 V (KT) LGEM 65 60 57 57 58 59 60 60 61 62 64 65 65 63 62 59 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 18 19 17 19 17 11 14 15 22 26 32 31 32 29 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 4 6 7 6 5 1 3 2 4 3 2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 8 353 344 347 335 351 358 343 310 272 267 253 244 232 227 251 257 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.6 28.7 27.3 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 157 153 151 154 158 159 163 162 153 143 146 130 125 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 134 135 131 127 131 136 139 143 140 132 119 124 116 108 99 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.1 -50.5 -50.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -51.3 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 11 9 8 8 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 57 59 59 60 56 53 47 50 50 56 59 61 59 59 57 63 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 22 22 24 25 26 26 26 27 29 31 33 36 39 42 43 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -55 -43 -32 -36 -23 -21 -7 -18 -13 -13 21 13 52 63 56 59 200 MB DIV -43 -34 -8 -17 -41 -16 9 27 11 27 52 94 49 55 49 54 27 700-850 TADV 20 15 10 2 5 6 0 1 0 2 5 21 20 17 18 11 16 LAND (KM) 869 879 893 868 850 792 740 692 712 800 737 629 437 509 419 678 606 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.1 25.8 25.7 26.1 27.0 28.0 29.2 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.3 68.8 68.3 67.7 67.1 66.5 67.0 68.1 69.5 71.2 72.7 74.2 75.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 2 4 5 8 8 9 9 5 8 17 15 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 39 42 45 43 48 51 38 40 39 32 34 26 15 20 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 3. 6. 10. 12. 11. 11. 9. 6. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.5 69.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.01 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 9.7% 9.7% 5.6% 4.6% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.1% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.1% 3.7% 2.2% 1.8% 3.0% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/12/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 61 61 61 62 63 64 65 68 71 75 77 76 76 74 71 69 18HR AGO 65 64 64 64 65 66 67 68 71 74 78 80 79 79 77 74 72 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 62 63 64 65 68 71 75 77 76 76 74 71 69 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 57 58 59 62 65 69 71 70 70 68 65 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT