* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/12/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 68 68 67 66 66 71 76 82 86 88 90 88 85 83 77 V (KT) LAND 75 71 68 68 67 66 66 71 76 82 86 88 90 88 85 83 77 V (KT) LGEM 75 70 67 66 67 69 69 71 73 76 80 81 81 78 73 68 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 21 16 16 17 13 11 5 11 13 17 25 25 35 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 2 1 9 8 5 4 2 -1 3 3 3 -5 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 18 7 2 5 346 344 14 11 337 294 258 258 237 232 226 228 226 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.2 29.5 28.8 28.6 26.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 162 160 157 158 162 163 163 163 154 159 147 146 121 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 136 138 136 133 135 141 143 143 142 134 134 124 126 105 104 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 -49.6 -49.4 -49.2 -50.5 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 59 61 56 54 52 55 56 59 59 58 57 50 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 23 22 24 26 29 29 31 32 34 37 38 41 44 43 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -48 -56 -38 -29 -18 -5 16 14 2 -8 -3 22 44 67 58 41 200 MB DIV -17 -20 -27 4 -32 -46 -23 25 35 32 54 80 69 71 16 37 15 700-850 TADV 18 16 12 7 2 4 0 -2 0 -2 3 7 9 9 10 6 0 LAND (KM) 798 824 851 837 828 767 683 604 607 676 709 570 470 486 324 334 328 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.1 25.4 25.0 25.2 25.9 26.9 27.9 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.7 69.3 68.9 68.3 67.8 67.1 67.4 68.6 70.0 71.5 72.9 74.4 75.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 5 4 4 6 7 7 8 8 6 7 12 13 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 42 42 44 49 50 50 51 42 38 47 45 69 33 40 2 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 13. 13. 15. 17. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -4. 1. 7. 11. 13. 15. 13. 10. 8. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 26.9 69.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 9.0% 6.4% 5.4% 4.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.4% 2.5% 1.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.2% 3.0% 2.3% 2.0% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/12/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 3( 11) 3( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 71 68 68 67 66 66 71 76 82 86 88 90 88 85 83 77 18HR AGO 75 74 71 71 70 69 69 74 79 85 89 91 93 91 88 86 80 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 70 69 69 74 79 85 89 91 93 91 88 86 80 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 63 63 68 73 79 83 85 87 85 82 80 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT