* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/11/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 81 80 78 76 74 74 79 82 86 92 95 96 93 90 86 V (KT) LAND 90 84 81 80 78 76 74 74 79 82 86 92 95 96 93 90 86 V (KT) LGEM 90 85 81 79 78 77 79 81 81 80 82 86 88 91 91 86 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 20 12 14 13 16 11 19 13 13 9 16 15 28 30 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 2 2 4 6 2 3 0 3 3 9 5 5 4 SHEAR DIR 13 23 32 26 355 357 353 356 342 341 318 301 280 250 254 246 251 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 162 161 160 161 159 157 159 162 164 163 163 158 159 156 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 141 137 134 136 135 133 137 142 144 143 145 137 137 137 127 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -50.5 -50.8 -50.2 -50.5 -50.1 -50.5 -50.1 -50.4 -50.5 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 12 12 12 11 9 8 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 60 60 64 62 61 57 56 55 59 60 62 64 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 19 19 20 21 22 27 27 27 30 32 35 36 38 40 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -69 -60 -49 -60 -44 -34 -25 -15 3 -11 -6 -18 3 6 16 34 200 MB DIV -21 -16 -14 -33 -14 -16 -52 -28 0 19 14 33 72 108 71 100 69 700-850 TADV 19 7 3 4 9 8 3 2 0 1 0 5 12 17 20 22 19 LAND (KM) 513 589 671 715 760 771 735 673 606 541 548 582 558 501 383 598 544 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.9 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.5 26.0 25.3 24.8 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.4 68.8 69.2 69.1 69.1 68.4 67.7 67.4 67.8 69.0 70.4 71.9 73.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 6 4 2 4 4 3 4 6 7 7 9 8 7 12 8 HEAT CONTENT 53 50 46 47 46 51 54 50 53 51 44 41 65 54 83 31 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -6. -5. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 6. 6. 5. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -11. -8. -4. 2. 5. 6. 3. -0. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 24.1 68.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.40 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 567.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 7.3% 5.5% 4.5% 3.9% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.5% 2.6% 2.0% 1.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/11/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 8( 19) 6( 24) 5( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 10( 11) 5( 15) 3( 18) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 84 81 80 78 76 74 74 79 82 86 92 95 96 93 90 86 18HR AGO 90 89 86 85 83 81 79 79 84 87 91 97 100 101 98 95 91 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 83 81 79 79 84 87 91 97 100 101 98 95 91 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 76 74 74 79 82 86 92 95 96 93 90 86 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 69 67 67 72 75 79 85 88 89 86 83 79 IN 6HR 90 84 75 69 66 64 62 62 67 70 74 80 83 84 81 78 74 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT