* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/11/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 63 57 51 40 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 59 48 39 34 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 58 47 38 33 29 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 31 38 43 40 30 16 18 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 0 -4 -2 2 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 219 210 212 210 194 224 243 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.3 27.1 27.6 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 153 155 150 140 127 124 130 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 137 137 132 121 106 102 105 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.2 -49.6 -48.9 -48.9 -49.6 -49.9 -50.7 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 61 56 50 48 45 41 40 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 43 43 40 35 31 21 17 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 134 143 136 139 116 72 34 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 119 99 37 -5 32 15 16 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 75 66 79 68 23 0 6 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -39 -25 -81 -195 -291 -420 -551 -696 -830 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.5 30.7 31.8 32.9 34.5 35.7 37.0 38.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.2 83.0 83.7 84.7 85.7 87.5 88.2 87.9 87.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 12 9 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 30 4 4 3 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 15 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -18. -16. -16. -16. -17. -17. -18. -19. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -6. -6. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -6. -10. -20. -30. -41. -46. -49. -51. -52. -52. -50. -48. -46. -45. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -18. -24. -35. -45. -55. -61. -61. -62. -61. -63. -65. -69. -70. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 28.2 82.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/11/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/11/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/11/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 59 48 39 34 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 63 54 49 44 42 42 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 12HR AGO 75 72 71 62 57 52 50 50 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 60 55 53 53 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT