* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/10/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 115 111 106 95 87 81 81 77 86 90 92 93 97 95 91 V (KT) LAND 120 118 115 111 106 95 87 81 81 77 86 90 92 93 97 95 91 V (KT) LGEM 120 116 113 109 106 99 94 89 85 81 81 84 86 92 96 98 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 16 23 26 21 22 21 17 16 15 18 19 9 13 24 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 4 -3 8 3 3 6 7 5 0 -4 3 3 6 6 SHEAR DIR 276 318 333 353 7 25 5 13 356 344 336 327 316 271 268 264 256 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 153 159 157 159 160 158 160 160 160 161 160 167 168 166 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 144 149 145 142 137 134 134 134 135 137 145 153 147 147 139 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.6 -50.0 -50.1 -49.9 -49.6 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 11 12 13 12 12 12 9 700-500 MB RH 56 53 54 53 55 56 61 61 62 65 63 61 62 64 65 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 23 23 22 20 22 23 26 25 31 33 34 35 40 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -31 -39 -58 -61 -74 -60 -52 -39 -32 -19 -28 -21 -20 1 0 31 200 MB DIV -4 9 -1 -11 -31 -39 -35 -17 -27 -6 -13 36 37 74 106 81 113 700-850 TADV 4 8 7 10 7 10 11 8 4 4 2 0 -2 -4 11 26 10 LAND (KM) 319 280 297 367 437 516 609 673 711 711 690 641 584 674 532 617 614 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.2 21.0 21.8 22.6 24.1 25.1 25.7 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.1 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.9 64.0 65.0 66.0 66.9 68.3 68.9 69.0 68.7 68.2 67.8 67.7 67.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 8 4 3 2 2 2 3 10 13 7 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 56 50 48 63 53 56 49 47 48 48 48 53 54 42 61 43 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -12. -22. -30. -37. -42. -45. -48. -49. -51. -52. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -12. -17. -17. -14. -11. -6. -1. 1. 4. 9. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -2. -2. 1. -1. 6. 8. 10. 9. 14. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -14. -25. -33. -39. -39. -43. -34. -30. -28. -27. -23. -25. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 19.4 62.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 832.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/10/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 31( 54) 27( 66) 17( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 68 56( 86) 22( 89) 30( 92) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 118 115 111 106 95 87 81 81 77 86 90 92 93 97 95 91 18HR AGO 120 119 116 112 107 96 88 82 82 78 87 91 93 94 98 96 92 12HR AGO 120 117 116 112 107 96 88 82 82 78 87 91 93 94 98 96 92 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 105 94 86 80 80 76 85 89 91 92 96 94 90 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 90 82 76 76 72 81 85 87 88 92 90 86 IN 6HR 120 118 109 103 100 94 86 80 80 76 85 89 91 92 96 94 90 IN 12HR 120 118 115 106 100 96 88 82 82 78 87 91 93 94 98 96 92