* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/10/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 106 107 104 96 78 59 44 37 29 29 29 31 30 30 27 V (KT) LAND 105 104 106 107 104 96 51 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 105 107 107 97 51 34 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 19 19 24 29 30 40 39 30 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 1 1 5 2 -4 -3 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 251 245 236 232 214 209 209 198 209 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.8 29.4 28.9 28.3 27.9 27.9 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 171 172 172 160 152 141 133 132 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 151 156 161 171 143 133 119 108 105 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -50.1 -49.7 -49.8 -50.0 -48.3 -48.3 -48.9 -49.4 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 7 5 0 1 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 63 61 60 51 45 46 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 43 43 48 48 48 47 37 27 20 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 124 136 137 149 143 152 146 161 97 60 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 108 103 82 41 114 72 17 30 16 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 24 27 43 43 61 53 6 0 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 44 101 79 49 21 12 -209 -385 -507 -557 -611 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.1 24.8 25.8 26.8 29.5 32.0 34.1 35.3 35.7 36.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.9 81.3 81.8 82.1 82.5 83.5 85.1 87.0 88.3 88.9 89.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 13 14 14 10 6 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 54 48 61 87 48 4 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 3. -2. -10. -17. -25. -31. -33. -35. -38. -40. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -23. -24. -23. -18. -13. -11. -9. -7. -5. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. -8. -22. -34. -39. -48. -49. -48. -47. -45. -43. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 2. -1. -9. -27. -46. -61. -68. -76. -76. -76. -74. -75. -75. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 23.4 80.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.53 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 422.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 12.6% 8.9% 8.2% 5.5% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 3.9% 2.5% 2.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 5.6% 3.8% 3.8% 2.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/10/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 26( 61) 19( 68) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 76 7( 78) 0( 78) 0( 78) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 104 106 107 104 96 51 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 105 104 106 107 104 96 51 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 105 102 101 102 99 91 46 30 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 92 84 39 23 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 78 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 104 95 89 86 81 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 104 106 97 91 87 42 26 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18