* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/09/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 121 117 112 107 97 86 78 75 75 79 80 84 91 93 92 90 V (KT) LAND 125 121 117 112 107 97 86 78 75 75 79 80 84 91 93 92 90 V (KT) LGEM 125 119 113 109 106 103 97 90 84 82 82 81 82 88 91 95 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 21 23 24 23 24 16 17 17 15 17 11 15 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 2 3 3 2 7 4 1 3 2 3 2 0 -1 3 7 SHEAR DIR 221 256 302 342 360 27 28 3 1 339 331 326 323 290 295 277 259 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 149 153 159 158 160 161 160 160 158 158 162 165 164 167 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 141 144 149 143 140 137 134 135 131 132 143 152 144 148 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -49.9 -50.4 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 10 9 10 11 12 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 57 53 52 49 50 52 55 59 62 65 64 57 58 62 60 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 18 17 18 18 18 19 20 22 25 25 28 31 34 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -15 -35 -44 -65 -67 -80 -66 -55 -55 -37 -49 -37 -36 -18 -19 15 200 MB DIV 29 -23 -8 -4 -19 -42 -56 -28 1 -21 -4 16 21 45 77 80 97 700-850 TADV 6 6 5 2 2 6 14 11 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 16 18 LAND (KM) 404 321 285 307 378 480 574 667 726 740 756 746 753 633 518 641 553 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.6 20.3 21.1 21.9 23.5 24.7 25.6 26.1 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.9 63.0 64.0 65.0 66.0 67.7 68.5 68.7 68.5 67.9 67.4 67.1 66.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 9 6 3 2 3 1 2 9 13 7 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 55 55 50 48 62 51 55 49 47 44 42 43 43 41 55 59 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -1. -1. -6. -14. -25. -34. -42. -48. -51. -54. -56. -58. -59. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -13. -18. -19. -16. -12. -6. -2. 2. 5. 10. 13. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -0. -0. 2. 6. 8. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -28. -39. -47. -50. -50. -46. -45. -40. -34. -32. -33. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 18.8 61.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 931.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/09/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 32( 58) 27( 69) 20( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 68 32( 78) 3( 79) 6( 80) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 121 117 112 107 97 86 78 75 75 79 80 84 91 93 92 90 18HR AGO 125 124 120 115 110 100 89 81 78 78 82 83 87 94 96 95 93 12HR AGO 125 122 121 116 111 101 90 82 79 79 83 84 88 95 97 96 94 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 110 100 89 81 78 78 82 83 87 94 96 95 93 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 96 85 77 74 74 78 79 83 90 92 91 89 IN 6HR 125 121 112 106 103 97 86 78 75 75 79 80 84 91 93 92 90 IN 12HR 125 121 117 108 102 98 87 79 76 76 80 81 85 92 94 93 91