* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/09/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 113 116 117 115 107 92 72 56 47 40 35 29 26 26 24 V (KT) LAND 115 112 113 116 117 115 94 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 115 110 109 111 115 118 97 55 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 3 11 16 12 28 30 41 45 38 23 29 28 32 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 3 6 1 3 8 -5 -2 4 6 6 3 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 270 224 232 234 227 224 211 211 205 223 242 254 247 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.2 30.9 29.9 29.5 28.7 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 169 171 172 169 161 147 138 133 133 134 139 140 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 162 159 155 150 155 171 150 140 125 113 106 104 106 110 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.8 -49.9 -49.6 -49.6 -49.1 -48.9 -48.0 -47.9 -48.0 -49.0 -49.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 10 6 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 62 60 63 61 55 50 44 43 46 43 41 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 42 40 42 45 46 50 49 42 31 22 17 13 12 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 99 129 149 144 154 153 159 189 136 84 59 23 8 -20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 72 97 115 102 42 92 103 24 23 11 9 3 -15 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 7 9 16 17 42 61 60 22 0 7 6 12 4 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 30 27 56 107 62 16 22 -134 -336 -457 -540 -585 -618 -653 -581 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.1 23.5 24.2 24.8 26.7 29.0 31.3 33.3 34.8 35.6 36.0 36.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.3 80.0 80.7 81.1 81.6 82.3 83.1 84.2 85.6 87.2 87.9 87.8 87.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 8 9 11 12 12 11 7 3 2 3 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 64 62 52 48 79 50 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -12. -20. -27. -34. -40. -45. -50. -54. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -4. -10. -14. -16. -18. -17. -12. -10. -8. -5. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 2. 2. 6. 6. -2. -18. -31. -40. -46. -48. -51. -51. -48. -47. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. 1. 2. -0. -8. -23. -43. -59. -68. -75. -80. -86. -89. -89. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 22.7 79.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 547.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.36 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 8.9% 6.2% 6.2% 3.9% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 9.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 3.7% 2.5% 2.5% 1.6% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/09/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 32( 67) 31( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 78 76( 95) 16( 96) 0( 96) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 112 113 116 117 115 94 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 115 114 115 118 119 117 96 55 37 31 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 115 112 111 114 115 113 92 51 33 27 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 106 104 83 42 24 18 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 94 73 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 112 103 97 94 92 71 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 112 113 104 98 94 73 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS