* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/08/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 130 123 116 111 102 93 86 77 74 72 72 79 80 80 78 76 V (KT) LAND 130 130 123 116 111 102 93 86 77 74 72 72 79 80 80 78 76 V (KT) LGEM 130 131 125 116 109 101 97 96 91 85 81 79 77 76 76 76 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 20 20 20 13 14 23 28 23 22 22 15 7 17 12 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 3 5 2 7 2 10 5 5 7 5 2 3 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 258 264 255 259 267 337 12 33 41 17 8 30 48 42 60 9 18 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 28.5 28.4 28.7 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 144 143 147 156 161 164 164 164 161 162 162 161 155 160 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 139 136 141 148 151 150 145 141 137 137 139 141 129 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 57 53 56 56 54 53 54 55 58 61 63 61 59 62 62 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 19 19 20 18 17 18 17 19 20 21 24 23 22 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -4 -1 1 -21 -55 -66 -73 -76 -63 -51 -57 -60 -21 -30 -29 200 MB DIV 71 51 44 48 39 -7 -10 -37 -27 -29 41 5 17 18 21 -7 -17 700-850 TADV 5 0 5 12 9 8 14 9 15 19 17 18 7 18 6 1 0 LAND (KM) 712 702 605 490 380 237 322 461 577 691 793 890 999 984 793 941 957 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.8 21.4 23.2 24.7 25.8 26.7 27.5 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.8 59.0 60.1 61.1 62.1 64.1 65.9 67.5 68.4 68.6 68.4 67.9 67.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 12 12 10 7 5 4 5 7 9 1 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 62 64 49 46 52 56 63 54 58 49 43 35 32 40 42 42 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -16. -26. -35. -43. -49. -52. -55. -59. -62. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -16. -17. -18. -16. -13. -9. -3. 0. 5. 10. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. -0. -1. -4. -5. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -8. -7. -7. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -7. -14. -19. -28. -37. -44. -53. -56. -58. -58. -51. -50. -50. -52. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 16.4 57.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 838.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 4.1% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 14.0% 5.2% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/08/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 35( 63) 29( 74) 24( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 87 75( 97) 78( 99) 71(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 130 123 116 111 102 93 86 77 74 72 72 79 80 80 78 76 18HR AGO 130 129 122 115 110 101 92 85 76 73 71 71 78 79 79 77 75 12HR AGO 130 127 126 119 114 105 96 89 80 77 75 75 82 83 83 81 79 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 115 106 97 90 81 78 76 76 83 84 84 82 80 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 102 93 86 77 74 72 72 79 80 80 78 76 IN 6HR 130 130 121 115 112 107 98 91 82 79 77 77 84 85 85 83 81 IN 12HR 130 130 123 114 108 104 95 88 79 76 74 74 81 82 82 80 78