* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/08/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 135 138 139 141 139 136 129 118 95 76 61 51 52 49 46 42 V (KT) LAND 135 135 138 139 141 139 103 59 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 135 134 136 139 140 141 108 60 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 13 18 27 37 42 48 37 32 37 30 33 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 2 0 6 4 8 3 -2 -4 1 2 -3 -3 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 310 307 298 307 284 251 229 227 204 215 212 214 220 225 233 242 246 SST (C) 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 171 171 171 170 171 171 172 171 154 149 144 139 146 144 141 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 161 162 159 157 152 158 155 150 131 124 117 108 117 114 116 109 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -49.9 -49.4 -49.0 -48.4 -48.2 -48.8 -49.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 13 13 11 7 3 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 3 700-500 MB RH 57 59 62 64 63 62 63 60 56 49 41 38 34 29 30 30 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 39 39 41 46 49 50 47 35 25 17 11 10 9 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 65 74 89 92 100 131 145 128 162 166 167 102 58 38 16 -21 -27 200 MB DIV 36 32 17 41 75 83 91 86 123 52 17 -8 14 14 26 -13 -7 700-850 TADV 3 4 5 11 6 24 30 59 56 48 -1 0 4 -3 3 4 3 LAND (KM) 99 71 39 61 50 95 -15 -37 -76 -290 -446 -534 -641 -468 -486 -455 -377 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.9 23.2 24.3 26.0 28.1 30.4 32.7 34.3 35.4 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.0 77.1 78.1 78.9 79.7 80.7 81.4 82.1 83.1 84.4 85.6 86.6 87.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 7 8 10 12 13 11 8 7 2 5 3 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 51 54 61 65 63 52 39 28 5 4 4 3 3 4 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 2. -4. -13. -23. -32. -41. -49. -55. -61. -66. -71. -74. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -1. 3. 6. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 14. 9. -7. -22. -34. -42. -41. -42. -43. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 4. 6. 4. 1. -6. -17. -40. -59. -74. -84. -83. -86. -89. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 22.0 76.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 651.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 7.5% 5.3% 3.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.1% 2.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 7.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/08/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 50( 74) 56( 89) 51( 94) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 99 99(100) 99(100) 90(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 135 138 139 141 139 103 59 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 135 134 137 138 140 138 102 58 38 30 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 135 132 131 132 134 132 96 52 32 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 127 125 89 45 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 135 126 120 117 116 114 78 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 135 135 126 120 117 115 79 35 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 135 135 138 129 123 119 83 39 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS