* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/08/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 127 130 133 133 135 133 130 123 106 91 70 57 50 47 47 43 V (KT) LAND 130 127 130 133 133 135 112 63 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 130 125 124 126 131 137 118 66 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 6 7 9 15 25 30 41 43 40 31 45 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -3 -2 1 0 6 2 5 2 -8 0 6 -2 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 288 270 272 305 253 243 224 209 202 207 213 223 224 232 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.8 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 171 171 171 170 171 172 168 167 150 147 140 139 139 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 157 160 162 159 154 156 155 149 145 127 122 112 116 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -49.7 -48.8 -48.7 -47.8 -47.8 -48.8 -50.5 -50.2 -50.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.5 2.3 1.8 1.2 0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 11 8 5 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 59 62 64 67 65 63 61 59 54 47 42 37 26 22 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 36 38 39 39 44 50 52 50 42 33 20 13 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 73 79 87 93 132 142 148 167 162 187 140 91 57 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 49 66 55 59 77 98 59 121 81 35 -6 -16 -12 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 6 7 7 8 14 31 35 60 56 5 6 2 -10 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 129 113 88 69 79 115 -27 -78 -42 -185 -391 -526 -673 -496 -326 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.7 23.0 24.0 25.4 27.2 29.3 31.7 33.7 35.3 36.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.7 75.9 77.0 77.9 78.8 80.1 80.9 81.5 82.4 83.7 85.0 86.5 88.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 8 9 11 12 12 11 10 5 11 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 52 55 64 66 58 48 13 15 5 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. -2. -11. -21. -29. -36. -43. -48. -53. -59. -63. -64. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 12. 15. 13. 2. -11. -29. -39. -44. -44. -42. -41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -0. 3. 3. 5. 3. 0. -7. -24. -39. -60. -73. -80. -83. -83. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 21.8 74.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.79 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 625.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 10.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 4.7% 2.8% 2.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.1% 5.1% 3.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 6.6% 4.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/08/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 43( 68) 46( 82) 48( 91) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 99 99(100) 99(100) 95(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 127 130 133 133 135 112 63 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 130 129 132 135 135 137 114 65 42 33 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 130 127 126 129 129 131 108 59 36 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 120 122 99 50 27 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 130 121 115 112 111 113 90 41 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 130 127 118 112 109 108 85 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 130 127 130 121 115 111 88 39 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS