* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/07/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 103 102 99 90 86 82 77 71 68 70 74 85 89 87 85 V (KT) LAND 100 104 103 102 99 90 86 82 77 71 68 70 74 85 89 87 85 V (KT) LGEM 100 105 107 106 103 97 90 84 78 71 67 66 68 72 75 74 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 15 18 19 20 17 17 24 29 32 26 18 11 15 25 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 5 6 10 5 6 2 5 3 3 5 6 8 7 SHEAR DIR 203 247 279 289 293 279 287 333 8 34 30 8 2 3 11 24 3 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.3 29.0 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 147 153 153 151 157 152 159 164 164 167 165 161 165 165 161 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 147 153 151 148 152 145 151 154 150 149 145 134 150 146 137 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -50.6 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 9 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 60 57 57 56 57 55 55 58 64 66 63 54 51 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 17 17 14 16 16 15 13 12 13 14 20 22 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 1 4 4 3 -1 -6 -8 -24 -54 -72 -86 -73 -38 -32 11 26 45 200 MB DIV 39 54 52 54 72 27 14 -1 -1 -42 -33 -11 20 22 12 5 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 0 0 2 10 12 15 9 11 20 8 9 18 5 0 LAND (KM) 1099 1003 886 804 743 655 433 277 330 509 613 760 927 888 893 753 781 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.3 18.4 19.8 21.4 23.3 24.9 26.4 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.6 53.1 54.7 56.0 57.4 59.6 61.6 63.6 65.3 66.8 67.9 68.4 69.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 4 13 9 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 51 50 56 62 60 61 54 53 60 48 58 45 43 34 55 50 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -11. -10. -10. -10. -8. -5. -2. 2. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -12. -12. -4. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. 2. -1. -10. -14. -18. -23. -29. -32. -30. -26. -15. -11. -13. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 15.3 51.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/07/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 7.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.35 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.20 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 534.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.9% 22.4% 19.0% 10.3% 9.4% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.0% 21.9% 14.3% 10.8% 5.7% 5.3% 3.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 33.0% 53.1% 35.3% 8.8% 9.1% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 23.7% 32.5% 22.9% 10.0% 8.1% 6.6% 1.1% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/07/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/07/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 25( 42) 21( 54) 12( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 55 46( 76) 30( 83) 19( 86) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 104 103 102 99 90 86 82 77 71 68 70 74 85 89 87 85 18HR AGO 100 99 98 97 94 85 81 77 72 66 63 65 69 80 84 82 80 12HR AGO 100 97 96 95 92 83 79 75 70 64 61 63 67 78 82 80 78 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 87 78 74 70 65 59 56 58 62 73 77 75 73 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 72 68 64 59 53 50 52 56 67 71 69 67 IN 6HR 100 104 95 89 86 82 78 74 69 63 60 62 66 77 81 79 77 IN 12HR 100 104 103 94 88 84 80 76 71 65 62 64 68 79 83 81 79