* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 150 146 146 144 146 143 141 137 134 131 134 115 88 74 62 53 47 V (KT) LAND 150 146 146 144 146 143 141 137 134 95 109 90 49 34 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 150 144 141 140 140 142 141 137 129 90 91 69 40 31 28 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 8 7 8 6 9 12 15 24 25 41 35 31 30 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 2 0 0 5 4 7 4 5 3 0 -1 1 9 4 SHEAR DIR 310 318 315 307 327 309 289 256 260 234 216 205 218 231 230 243 254 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.6 29.1 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.5 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 165 167 168 171 170 170 169 162 154 141 138 135 135 132 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 159 157 158 157 157 159 155 151 143 134 122 119 110 110 112 97 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -49.7 -49.9 -49.6 -49.4 -48.9 -48.5 -47.8 -47.8 -48.2 -48.6 -50.2 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 14 14 13 14 12 12 8 5 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 56 56 52 53 56 57 65 67 67 59 55 46 49 46 45 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 37 35 40 42 46 48 50 52 57 48 32 23 17 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 62 65 47 43 53 81 101 126 139 156 174 181 169 108 96 70 93 200 MB DIV 45 76 -4 -7 34 46 52 89 74 74 105 95 12 16 8 -8 5 700-850 TADV 5 6 6 7 0 5 10 16 27 38 45 61 16 -2 6 33 -2 LAND (KM) 91 95 145 178 157 135 108 153 30 0 56 20 -155 -528 -512 -694 -546 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.5 23.1 24.0 25.5 27.4 29.5 31.8 34.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.0 70.3 71.7 72.9 74.2 76.3 77.9 79.2 80.0 80.3 80.5 80.8 81.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 8 9 10 11 11 14 8 7 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 80 71 61 67 70 56 72 68 52 38 31 23 2 2 2 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 160 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -9. -19. -33. -45. -56. -64. -70. -76. -83. -89. -92. -94. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 13. 15. 15. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 3. 5. 10. 12. 16. 18. 26. 11. -12. -23. -30. -36. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -4. -6. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -16. -35. -62. -76. -88. -97.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 20.1 69.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 150.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1007.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 1.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/07/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 78 71( 94) 71( 98) 64( 99) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 98 98(100) 99(100) 99(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 150 146 146 144 146 143 141 137 134 95 109 90 49 34 29 29 29 18HR AGO 150 149 149 147 149 146 144 140 137 98 112 93 52 37 32 32 32 12HR AGO 150 147 146 144 146 143 141 137 134 95 109 90 49 34 29 29 29 6HR AGO 150 144 141 140 142 139 137 133 130 91 105 86 45 30 25 25 25 NOW 150 141 135 132 131 128 126 122 119 80 94 75 34 19 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 150 146 137 131 128 126 124 120 117 78 92 73 32 17 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 150 146 146 137 131 127 125 121 118 79 93 74 33 18 DIS DIS DIS