* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL132017 09/07/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 75 75 77 77 70 67 67 67 66 65 65 64 63 64 66 V (KT) LAND 70 72 75 75 77 77 62 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 74 75 75 73 69 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 8 10 3 6 5 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 249 225 222 224 347 47 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 28.9 28.2 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 160 160 158 148 138 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 138 139 141 141 134 125 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 7 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 71 69 67 70 71 72 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 14 14 12 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 14 11 3 1 -2 10 15 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 35 45 57 51 57 47 2 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 3 6 4 0 -1 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 269 263 258 234 210 125 -8 -144 -228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.2 20.8 20.2 19.4 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.6 94.6 94.8 95.0 95.7 96.8 97.8 98.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 3 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 55 54 55 55 46 22 11 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -13. -17. -19. -20. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 5. 7. 7. -0. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.6 94.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/07/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.3% 37.0% 25.8% 19.2% 12.8% 20.8% 17.6% 17.3% Logistic: 8.7% 39.4% 24.7% 14.5% 9.2% 26.0% 32.7% 28.7% Bayesian: 3.1% 12.3% 2.7% 1.9% 0.5% 4.6% 3.7% 14.9% Consensus: 10.4% 29.6% 17.7% 11.9% 7.5% 17.1% 18.0% 20.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/07/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/07/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 6( 14) 6( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 75 75 77 77 62 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 70 69 72 72 74 74 59 37 28 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 68 68 53 31 22 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 62 47 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT