* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/07/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 155 152 151 151 148 147 143 142 138 133 131 127 112 91 73 61 50 V (KT) LAND 155 152 151 151 148 147 143 142 138 104 67 68 44 32 28 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 155 151 147 144 143 140 143 143 135 103 65 67 43 32 28 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 8 6 7 6 9 19 18 28 35 47 48 56 43 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 3 3 -4 0 4 5 3 11 7 3 0 -4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 267 298 293 284 294 334 295 247 258 254 229 211 220 230 223 218 237 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.4 30.4 30.0 29.8 29.5 28.9 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 167 167 167 168 171 170 169 166 161 150 143 137 136 139 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 163 161 160 157 154 161 158 150 146 142 130 123 113 112 112 95 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 -50.4 -50.0 -49.8 -49.2 -48.9 -47.9 -47.9 -47.7 -47.7 -49.6 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 0.9 2.4 2.5 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 10 7 3 2 0 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 53 55 56 52 52 56 59 65 64 62 52 48 44 44 40 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 33 35 35 40 40 45 47 49 52 53 46 33 21 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 56 53 53 45 39 61 81 108 127 150 144 168 156 139 111 81 96 200 MB DIV 2 18 66 39 12 27 26 103 87 55 92 105 74 48 -3 18 5 700-850 TADV 10 13 2 0 2 2 6 14 24 27 48 52 56 32 7 14 14 LAND (KM) 142 104 116 162 200 156 129 144 76 -23 -10 41 -87 -320 -452 -648 -468 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.4 23.0 23.7 24.9 26.6 28.6 30.9 33.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.7 69.1 70.5 71.8 73.2 75.4 77.3 78.8 79.8 80.3 80.8 81.1 81.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 8 9 11 11 12 8 8 8 12 HEAT CONTENT 73 81 71 63 70 56 70 74 55 44 35 33 3 3 2 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 160 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -1. -3. -10. -22. -36. -49. -60. -69. -74. -80. -87. -93. -96. -98. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -3. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 13. 15. 14. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 7. 13. 17. 19. 23. 23. 13. -6. -20. -28. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -12. -13. -17. -22. -24. -28. -43. -64. -82. -94.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 155. LAT, LON: 19.7 67.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/07/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 155.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1062.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/07/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/07/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 77 78( 95) 75( 99) 74(100) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 94 97(100) 95(100) 99(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 155 152 151 151 148 147 143 142 138 104 67 68 44 32 28 28 29 18HR AGO 155 154 153 153 150 149 145 144 140 106 69 70 46 34 30 30 31 12HR AGO 155 152 151 151 148 147 143 142 138 104 67 68 44 32 28 28 29 6HR AGO 155 149 146 145 142 141 137 136 132 98 61 62 38 26 22 22 23 NOW 155 146 140 137 136 135 131 130 126 92 55 56 32 20 16 16 17 IN 6HR 155 152 143 137 134 133 129 128 124 90 53 54 30 18 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 155 152 151 142 136 132 128 127 123 89 52 53 29 17 DIS DIS DIS