* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL132017 09/06/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 45 48 53 54 59 61 59 58 58 59 61 63 64 66 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 45 48 53 54 59 61 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 41 43 45 48 52 58 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 16 11 16 15 6 3 5 3 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 267 237 221 233 218 254 66 41 55 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.2 28.4 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 161 161 162 160 153 140 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 141 140 139 140 141 141 137 127 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 7 8 7 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 74 72 72 72 71 72 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 9 6 -5 -2 1 -15 -18 -9 11 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 51 54 57 49 38 34 35 60 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 2 2 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 106 119 138 156 176 186 151 112 21 -103 -242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.4 21.1 20.9 20.4 19.8 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.4 96.1 95.9 95.7 95.5 95.4 95.6 95.9 96.6 97.6 98.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 50 52 54 55 53 45 41 26 15 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. 1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 13. 18. 19. 24. 26. 24. 23. 23. 24. 26. 28. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.2 96.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/06/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.69 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 36.4% 23.0% 11.2% 9.8% 17.6% 21.9% 38.4% Logistic: 25.4% 60.5% 48.4% 32.0% 15.4% 41.3% 54.9% 63.6% Bayesian: 5.1% 11.7% 5.5% 4.0% 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 24.7% Consensus: 14.3% 36.2% 25.6% 15.7% 8.8% 20.0% 26.0% 42.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/06/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/06/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 45 48 53 54 59 61 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 38 40 43 48 49 54 56 35 26 23 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 41 42 47 49 28 19 16 15 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 34 39 41 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT