* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/05/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 127 126 124 121 119 117 116 122 123 127 128 132 130 125 118 100 V (KT) LAND 125 127 126 124 121 119 117 116 122 123 127 128 132 112 71 43 32 V (KT) LGEM 125 127 128 127 125 125 125 128 130 132 131 130 125 103 66 40 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 15 16 14 11 6 7 8 6 7 11 9 16 15 19 22 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 -3 1 1 0 0 0 -2 0 6 5 0 1 7 1 SHEAR DIR 354 345 331 309 311 317 298 307 284 282 266 261 260 239 231 220 231 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.0 30.1 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 161 161 161 164 163 165 167 168 170 170 166 169 170 174 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 154 159 158 158 161 159 159 159 158 157 155 146 147 153 160 130 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.3 -50.5 -49.8 -49.9 -49.6 -49.5 -49.0 -48.9 -47.8 -47.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 11 9 8 5 2 700-500 MB RH 55 55 58 57 56 56 55 57 58 61 63 67 68 68 62 57 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 32 32 31 32 32 34 39 40 44 45 50 51 50 48 37 850 MB ENV VOR 79 73 71 66 59 60 61 59 60 85 103 129 150 165 180 179 157 200 MB DIV -1 13 46 4 4 47 -13 28 31 54 34 81 96 86 94 148 58 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -7 -3 0 6 6 0 8 8 8 21 31 37 31 43 46 LAND (KM) 814 758 725 591 449 162 122 91 157 133 111 99 105 -7 -39 -71 -161 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.6 19.6 20.5 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.4 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.6 58.9 60.2 61.5 64.2 67.0 69.7 72.4 74.9 77.1 79.1 81.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 10 10 6 6 11 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 50 53 59 59 56 76 66 73 61 66 64 72 54 49 30 8 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. -1. -8. -17. -23. -29. -33. -35. -38. -41. -44. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -9. -8. -4. -0. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 17. 18. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 6. 7. 12. 13. 18. 18. 15. 11. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -3. -2. 2. 3. 7. 5. -0. -7. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.6 56.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/05/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 684.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.22 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 13.7% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.1% 7.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.1% 2.4% 6.2% 1.5% Bayesian: 14.0% 36.2% 21.7% 2.3% 1.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 10.8% 19.0% 12.1% 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/05/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/05/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 40( 63) 34( 75) 33( 84) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 75 71( 93) 69( 98) 78(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 127 126 124 121 119 117 116 122 123 127 128 132 112 71 43 32 18HR AGO 125 124 123 121 118 116 114 113 119 120 124 125 129 109 68 40 29 12HR AGO 125 122 121 119 116 114 112 111 117 118 122 123 127 107 66 38 27 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 112 110 108 107 113 114 118 119 123 103 62 34 23 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 104 102 101 107 108 112 113 117 97 56 28 17 IN 6HR 125 127 118 112 109 105 103 102 108 109 113 114 118 98 57 29 18 IN 12HR 125 127 126 117 111 107 105 104 110 111 115 116 120 100 59 31 20