* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/04/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 105 107 108 106 110 112 115 118 120 121 123 125 122 125 125 V (KT) LAND 100 102 105 107 108 106 110 112 115 118 120 121 123 125 122 125 125 V (KT) LGEM 100 101 103 106 109 114 116 118 117 113 112 114 115 111 112 114 111 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 6 12 10 12 11 12 11 15 15 15 10 14 16 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 5 4 3 6 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 1 1 4 3 12 10 SHEAR DIR 24 10 45 51 25 346 315 298 301 301 291 293 264 281 269 261 242 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 144 150 155 156 158 156 158 160 161 163 165 164 170 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 137 138 145 151 151 154 152 153 153 152 152 147 145 153 151 148 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -50.3 -49.9 -49.8 -49.7 -49.0 -48.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.7 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 10 11 11 12 11 13 13 13 11 11 8 7 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 56 58 62 64 65 65 64 65 65 69 72 71 71 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 30 32 33 32 37 38 40 41 44 44 47 50 51 58 61 850 MB ENV VOR 76 78 79 77 81 79 73 67 68 56 63 70 97 128 175 169 185 200 MB DIV 47 37 55 59 47 79 61 69 36 3 35 46 46 67 47 113 95 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 4 8 14 3 8 4 14 26 40 34 LAND (KM) 1347 1238 1125 1025 929 798 650 359 148 214 186 267 258 264 205 237 241 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.9 17.6 18.4 19.4 20.5 21.4 22.3 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.5 52.6 53.7 54.8 57.1 59.6 62.3 64.9 67.6 70.1 72.4 74.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 12 12 7 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 27 42 49 44 44 46 56 58 62 77 77 65 46 51 85 78 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 15. 17. 20. 20. 25. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 6. 10. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 23. 25. 22. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.3 50.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/04/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 581.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.32 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 15.2% 10.9% 8.2% 8.1% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 13.7% 8.9% 8.3% 7.0% 6.9% 4.6% 2.9% Bayesian: 3.8% 18.6% 9.7% 0.6% 0.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4% Consensus: 6.6% 15.8% 9.8% 5.7% 5.2% 6.3% 1.8% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/04/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/04/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 28( 59) 27( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 28( 33) 45( 63) 50( 82) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 105 107 108 106 110 112 115 118 120 121 123 125 122 125 125 18HR AGO 100 99 102 104 105 103 107 109 112 115 117 118 120 122 119 122 122 12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 99 97 101 103 106 109 111 112 114 116 113 116 116 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 91 89 93 95 98 101 103 104 106 108 105 108 108 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 83 85 88 91 93 94 96 98 95 98 98 IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 82 86 88 91 94 96 97 99 101 98 101 101 IN 12HR 100 102 105 96 90 86 90 92 95 98 100 101 103 105 102 105 105