* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/03/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 97 98 99 101 101 103 102 106 108 113 115 115 120 120 123 V (KT) LAND 95 95 97 98 99 101 101 103 102 106 108 113 115 115 120 120 123 V (KT) LGEM 95 95 97 99 102 105 106 106 104 104 103 104 104 105 112 119 116 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 11 11 9 12 10 13 14 16 9 11 12 8 10 14 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 5 4 8 7 5 6 1 0 1 0 -1 0 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 331 347 1 12 8 353 339 318 290 277 253 250 245 270 241 255 231 SST (C) 27.2 27.6 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.6 30.0 30.1 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 132 140 143 144 147 154 152 153 153 155 155 154 162 169 171 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 126 133 136 137 141 148 147 148 147 149 148 144 146 151 151 142 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -50.3 -50.2 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 47 51 50 53 55 58 60 63 66 67 71 67 65 66 68 67 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 28 29 29 33 33 35 34 37 38 41 42 43 50 53 59 850 MB ENV VOR 65 69 80 81 87 88 89 94 88 82 91 75 72 80 104 127 161 200 MB DIV 10 20 29 38 49 90 44 68 64 65 56 49 39 77 97 95 68 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 -5 -6 -2 2 13 11 22 14 13 7 18 22 LAND (KM) 1668 1581 1495 1421 1354 1164 983 868 697 441 263 322 334 443 514 581 546 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.1 17.8 17.6 17.3 17.0 17.0 17.4 18.1 19.1 20.2 21.4 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.6 46.8 48.0 49.1 50.2 52.3 54.5 56.7 59.1 61.6 64.2 67.0 69.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 11 11 11 13 13 14 14 13 9 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 19 21 25 30 50 43 44 52 55 49 68 64 64 60 76 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 10. 11. 14. 15. 15. 21. 23. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 7. 11. 13. 18. 20. 20. 25. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.4 45.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 691.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 12.0% 8.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 3.6% 4.1% 5.5% 1.6% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 3.7% 7.0% 5.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 5.3% 7.6% 6.1% 4.4% 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/03/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 20( 34) 21( 48) 23( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 8( 9) 25( 32) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 97 98 99 101 101 103 102 106 108 113 115 115 120 120 123 18HR AGO 95 94 96 97 98 100 100 102 101 105 107 112 114 114 119 119 122 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 93 95 95 97 96 100 102 107 109 109 114 114 117 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 86 88 88 90 89 93 95 100 102 102 107 107 110 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 78 78 80 79 83 85 90 92 92 97 97 100 IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 76 76 78 77 81 83 88 90 90 95 95 98 IN 12HR 95 95 97 88 82 78 78 80 79 83 85 90 92 92 97 97 100