* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/02/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 105 104 104 102 101 100 100 101 103 106 107 109 111 110 113 V (KT) LAND 105 105 105 104 104 102 101 100 100 101 103 106 107 109 111 110 113 V (KT) LGEM 105 105 103 100 99 99 102 102 102 103 102 101 98 98 97 98 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 2 1 2 14 11 14 11 13 16 16 15 11 12 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 6 4 1 3 6 6 5 0 0 -1 3 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 187 198 275 306 311 344 352 349 338 321 280 273 260 247 246 276 252 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 124 125 128 136 140 143 149 152 149 151 152 155 156 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 115 116 117 121 129 133 136 143 145 143 144 147 148 142 142 139 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 49 47 51 55 59 60 62 65 68 68 70 65 70 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 24 25 27 29 29 31 33 34 37 38 40 42 44 49 850 MB ENV VOR 78 76 67 73 78 89 95 97 96 95 92 84 74 63 57 61 89 200 MB DIV 30 32 29 36 35 58 54 63 47 46 60 103 80 76 68 49 58 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 -3 -2 -2 -4 -6 -4 2 14 18 25 23 15 11 LAND (KM) 2091 2001 1912 1818 1730 1546 1395 1256 1064 926 847 603 399 483 584 631 768 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.5 17.8 17.3 16.9 16.9 17.2 17.8 18.8 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.8 41.0 42.2 43.4 44.6 46.9 49.1 51.2 53.4 55.5 57.7 60.0 62.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 11 11 10 11 12 15 15 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 14 15 16 15 24 24 45 45 44 44 60 50 50 36 43 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -21. -26. -30. -32. -33. -35. -36. -38. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. 1. 2. -0. 0. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 17. 17. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 19.1 39.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/02/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 827.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 10.3% 7.4% 4.8% 2.6% 4.4% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 4.1% 2.7% 1.6% 0.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/02/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/02/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 26( 61) 24( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 105 105 104 104 102 101 100 100 101 103 106 107 109 111 110 113 18HR AGO 105 104 104 103 103 101 100 99 99 100 102 105 106 108 110 109 112 12HR AGO 105 102 101 100 100 98 97 96 96 97 99 102 103 105 107 106 109 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 95 93 92 91 91 92 94 97 98 100 102 101 104 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 84 83 82 82 83 85 88 89 91 93 92 95 IN 6HR 105 105 96 90 87 85 84 83 83 84 86 89 90 92 94 93 96 IN 12HR 105 105 105 96 90 86 85 84 84 85 87 90 91 93 95 94 97