* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP142017 09/01/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 67 64 56 46 40 39 32 26 24 20 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 59 52 46 47 36 33 23 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 59 54 47 47 37 35 31 28 26 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 3 3 3 4 5 1 3 5 9 3 10 8 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 6 6 0 0 -1 0 4 4 6 5 0 5 1 3 SHEAR DIR 243 208 229 238 12 299 280 301 290 194 159 161 226 195 242 228 220 SST (C) 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.3 27.4 24.9 21.9 21.0 20.7 19.6 19.4 19.2 19.6 20.0 19.8 19.8 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 154 147 138 111 80 70 67 59 59 59 63 60 59 57 57 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -49.8 -50.5 -49.9 -49.9 -49.7 -49.7 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.9 -51.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 6 3 4 2 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 65 63 62 63 62 60 57 52 45 39 39 40 35 32 29 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 26 27 26 20 16 12 11 13 11 10 11 11 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 66 64 56 61 59 31 9 5 23 25 28 -11 -5 -12 -29 -37 -42 200 MB DIV 87 57 45 53 60 14 10 12 16 8 4 -1 -17 13 -14 8 -3 700-850 TADV 5 6 3 0 -1 1 -5 -5 0 1 5 -7 5 -4 -7 -5 -13 LAND (KM) 17 10 -12 -43 6 -54 67 67 161 278 404 505 569 793 701 713 678 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.6 24.3 25.1 25.8 27.3 28.4 29.3 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.7 111.1 111.7 112.2 113.5 114.9 116.2 117.6 119.1 120.6 122.1 123.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 17 9 6 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 11 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -18. -23. -29. -35. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. -4. -10. -17. -21. -19. -21. -21. -18. -16. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 12. 9. 1. -9. -15. -16. -23. -29. -31. -35. -38. -43. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.9 110.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 09/01/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 8.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.4% 47.4% 37.4% 25.2% 13.5% 17.3% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 12.7% 8.6% 3.1% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.3% 20.3% 15.6% 9.4% 4.7% 6.2% 4.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 09/01/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##