* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/01/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 103 103 101 100 98 100 99 102 106 109 112 115 116 116 116 118 V (KT) LAND 100 103 103 101 100 98 100 99 102 106 109 112 115 116 116 116 118 V (KT) LGEM 100 103 102 98 95 94 96 98 103 108 108 111 113 110 107 105 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 7 9 4 2 4 10 10 13 8 10 9 14 15 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 2 3 7 4 0 -2 0 0 2 1 -1 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 117 104 117 129 137 318 313 348 23 11 352 338 310 284 261 255 246 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.6 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 121 122 122 127 130 135 137 140 144 149 150 147 155 155 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 113 115 114 120 123 128 132 134 139 143 144 141 150 146 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 59 57 62 57 56 51 51 53 52 56 59 62 62 65 60 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 26 23 24 24 25 28 28 31 34 36 38 39 41 42 44 48 850 MB ENV VOR 80 75 85 85 87 83 93 105 114 123 126 127 124 105 117 110 112 200 MB DIV 45 60 75 71 39 26 36 50 30 22 21 57 59 103 79 68 57 700-850 TADV 5 6 7 7 4 2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 -3 -1 12 14 13 5 LAND (KM) 1902 2011 2119 2119 2055 1883 1697 1510 1361 1232 1052 883 757 819 494 442 521 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.1 17.7 17.1 16.7 16.3 16.2 16.4 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.1 36.1 37.1 38.2 39.3 41.6 43.9 46.2 48.5 50.7 53.0 55.2 57.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 13 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 4 5 6 15 24 39 24 39 44 35 35 50 54 45 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -14. -21. -26. -30. -32. -33. -34. -36. -36. -37. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. 0. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 2. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -0. -1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.5 35.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/01/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 600.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.8% 25.7% 13.7% 11.4% 9.2% 17.0% 6.7% 3.9% Bayesian: 9.8% 7.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 10.9% 5.1% 3.8% 3.1% 5.7% 2.2% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/01/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/01/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 25( 42) 22( 54) 21( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 103 103 101 100 98 100 99 102 106 109 112 115 116 116 116 118 18HR AGO 100 99 99 97 96 94 96 95 98 102 105 108 111 112 112 112 114 12HR AGO 100 97 96 94 93 91 93 92 95 99 102 105 108 109 109 109 111 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 87 89 88 91 95 98 101 104 105 105 105 107 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 81 80 83 87 90 93 96 97 97 97 99 IN 6HR 100 103 94 88 85 83 85 84 87 91 94 97 100 101 101 101 103 IN 12HR 100 103 103 94 88 84 86 85 88 92 95 98 101 102 102 102 104