* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/29/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 45 48 50 52 54 56 53 51 46 42 36 34 36 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 45 48 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 42 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 33 N/A 22 21 12 16 6 17 16 19 15 24 29 36 37 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 N/A -2 -4 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 -1 0 -3 2 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 229 242 N/A 230 227 243 205 268 245 243 250 247 249 259 276 295 N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 29.2 28.0 27.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 144 148 156 153 152 152 162 162 165 165 171 157 138 129 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 119 123 130 128 126 126 132 133 134 134 144 133 113 107 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 N/A -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -52.1 -53.7 -54.2 -55.4 -55.3 -55.7 -54.4 -54.4 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 N/A 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 N/A 6 7 5 10 6 10 4 7 0 6 1 4 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 50 N/A 51 50 44 44 47 52 52 55 59 61 65 40 43 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 LOST 23 22 23 22 20 20 20 18 15 12 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 27 N/A 29 29 12 23 -12 -15 -47 -9 -28 22 6 -19 39 N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -10 N/A 34 43 27 36 22 21 4 46 6 64 23 -35 -23 N/A 700-850 TADV -3 1 N/A 0 -3 0 0 -1 6 2 10 6 19 2 -19 10 N/A LAND (KM) 66 72 84 84 79 19 -82 -203 -320 -391 -492 -607 -729 -543 -563 -319 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 29.5 30.5 31.6 32.7 33.7 34.8 36.1 37.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.4 95.2 95.0 94.8 94.5 94.0 93.5 93.0 92.3 91.6 90.6 89.3 88.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 14 15 12 13 N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 26 28 32 38 38 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 24. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -9. -13. -18. -22. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 13. 11. 6. 2. -4. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 28.2 95.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.31 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.5 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.1% 9.1% 6.9% 5.9% 9.1% 9.9% 14.2% Logistic: 1.3% 3.7% 2.7% 1.2% 0.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.6% 3.9% 2.7% 2.0% 3.6% 3.6% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 44 45 48 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 43 46 33 27 26 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 42 29 23 22 21 21 21 21 22 23 24 24 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT