* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/28/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 38 41 44 47 49 51 49 45 42 40 33 27 24 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 38 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 34 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 32 35 29 22 19 14 17 14 14 20 16 13 24 35 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -6 -2 2 -1 -1 1 2 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 231 228 237 241 236 238 208 272 252 244 247 249 251 269 277 287 285 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.2 28.0 27.1 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 137 138 142 149 151 153 155 162 162 164 168 158 138 127 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 111 112 114 118 124 126 126 127 132 131 132 147 136 113 107 84 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -52.2 -53.1 -53.9 -54.6 -55.0 -55.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 5 4 6 6 9 7 9 5 6 2 6 0 4 0 1 700-500 MB RH 56 51 48 48 49 45 43 46 53 56 56 55 53 60 42 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 23 24 24 24 24 23 22 22 21 18 14 11 7 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 38 32 17 29 13 27 -8 -3 -29 -6 -38 18 44 44 24 94 200 MB DIV 18 16 1 5 38 27 33 31 26 38 44 47 45 54 -13 -2 6 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -1 -1 -1 3 -1 8 9 9 14 6 11 11 -9 5 94 LAND (KM) 9 25 42 39 44 8 -61 -172 -279 -384 -454 -550 -647 -727 -624 -329 -225 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 29.3 30.2 31.3 32.3 33.3 34.3 35.3 36.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.9 95.7 95.5 95.3 95.1 94.6 94.2 93.7 93.1 92.4 91.6 90.9 90.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 17 19 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 26 29 33 42 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 27. 26. 26. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -13. -18. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -9. -14. -20. -23. -27. -31. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 14. 11. 7. 5. -2. -8. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.6 95.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.26 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 8.9% 6.2% 4.7% 3.6% 6.6% 7.2% 12.1% Logistic: 1.4% 2.3% 2.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.7% 2.8% 1.9% 1.2% 2.4% 2.6% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 38 38 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 37 40 31 27 26 26 26 26 26 27 28 29 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 33 36 27 23 22 22 22 22 22 23 24 25 25 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 28 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT