* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/28/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 36 37 38 40 41 41 38 38 31 28 21 18 18 V (KT) LAND 35 33 37 37 36 37 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 35 35 34 33 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 26 32 34 22 23 13 20 18 24 22 26 26 29 25 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 -3 -2 1 -4 -1 -4 -3 1 -3 -2 -1 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 235 238 227 230 242 236 245 238 265 266 267 269 279 285 295 291 272 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 133 134 135 139 144 148 156 154 156 162 163 163 162 164 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 109 110 110 111 115 119 123 129 127 127 131 135 127 126 130 129 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -53.6 -54.1 -54.8 -55.7 -55.1 -54.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 7 8 6 6 6 8 7 9 6 7 3 6 4 9 4 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 52 50 52 49 48 48 56 56 58 61 62 64 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 19 19 21 22 22 21 20 18 18 14 13 9 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 31 36 38 30 22 16 2 14 -22 -15 -44 -23 -92 -52 -107 -20 -57 200 MB DIV 24 16 8 9 -5 33 24 31 45 13 6 29 22 20 35 19 12 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -1 -7 -1 0 3 -1 6 2 10 10 28 11 25 33 27 LAND (KM) -23 3 28 37 47 31 -3 -64 -142 -230 -323 -412 -477 -564 -590 -676 -644 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.6 29.2 30.0 30.9 31.8 32.7 33.5 34.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.4 96.2 96.0 95.8 95.7 95.3 95.0 94.7 94.4 93.9 93.3 92.6 92.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 1 1 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 9 3 3 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 24 24 24 32 41 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -21. -24. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -17. -18. -23. -25. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. 3. -4. -7. -14. -17. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.7 96.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.25 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 11.8% 8.3% 6.6% 5.7% 7.4% 6.5% 10.3% Logistic: 1.3% 2.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.8% 3.4% 2.4% 1.9% 2.8% 2.3% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 37 37 36 37 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 38 38 37 38 35 31 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 31 28 24 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 25 22 18 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT