* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/27/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 37 38 38 40 39 44 39 35 32 29 21 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 28 32 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 30 29 28 30 29 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 26 29 27 25 32 23 24 17 24 23 31 28 41 33 32 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 -4 -3 -7 -4 -3 -2 -5 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 216 218 235 240 227 234 234 250 255 285 280 284 275 281 268 282 292 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 156 156 154 154 156 161 163 165 168 168 172 163 162 162 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 128 128 126 127 128 132 134 135 137 135 149 134 129 126 128 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -53.2 -53.8 -55.5 -54.3 -53.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 8 6 7 1 6 4 8 700-500 MB RH 62 59 56 57 59 53 58 54 56 56 61 60 62 56 62 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 21 21 20 21 20 22 17 15 14 12 8 6 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 13 29 29 36 48 17 7 0 6 -28 -17 -53 -22 -91 -56 -121 -25 200 MB DIV 71 62 40 4 21 5 45 16 36 27 36 23 40 30 34 15 35 700-850 TADV 3 -5 -7 -3 1 0 0 4 0 6 3 8 8 21 7 22 25 LAND (KM) -101 -76 -51 -29 -7 28 4 -38 -95 -166 -222 -286 -344 -522 -556 -542 -558 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.7 29.2 29.9 30.7 31.4 32.1 32.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.2 97.0 96.8 96.6 96.4 96.0 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.4 95.2 95.0 94.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 3 13 8 5 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 29 41 42 38 34 43 43 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. -27. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -11. -15. -18. -21. -26. -27. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 9. 4. -0. -3. -6. -14. -19. -25. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.0 97.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 14.0% 9.3% 6.7% 6.4% 8.1% 7.4% 12.4% Logistic: 1.6% 4.7% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.2% 4.1% 2.5% 2.2% 2.9% 2.7% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 30 29 28 32 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 30 34 35 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 33 34 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 28 29 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT