* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/27/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 48 48 48 51 53 55 55 59 53 52 49 45 39 32 31 V (KT) LAND 50 40 34 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 39 34 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 17 18 25 26 26 29 24 19 19 25 28 32 31 32 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -3 1 -5 0 -3 0 -5 -4 -2 -3 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 225 252 251 223 223 244 224 243 236 246 249 283 277 288 282 299 272 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.5 30.2 30.3 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 168 168 168 169 168 170 169 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 137 139 140 141 141 143 141 141 140 139 142 142 142 143 137 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -51.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -53.6 -53.6 -52.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 9 6 9 5 8 4 8 5 8 5 9 6 12 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 62 60 58 57 56 56 56 60 59 63 56 60 62 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 19 18 19 20 21 20 21 17 15 13 11 9 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -18 -14 9 22 26 26 3 -5 -13 5 -14 -11 -42 -12 -16 14 200 MB DIV 27 18 23 42 51 21 59 20 46 24 39 17 43 -16 36 15 12 700-850 TADV 5 1 -1 1 -8 -1 1 -3 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 1 -3 LAND (KM) -131 -127 -122 -106 -91 -46 -40 -51 -74 -107 -155 -208 -256 -361 -393 -367 -416 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.9 30.4 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.4 97.4 97.4 97.3 97.3 97.0 96.9 96.8 96.8 96.8 96.8 96.8 96.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 5 3 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 10 21 49 49 48 35 6 7 5 5 6 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -6. -4. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. 1. 3. 5. 5. 9. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.2 97.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.53 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 13.4% 8.5% 8.3% 5.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.5% 3.4% 2.9% 1.9% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 40 34 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 43 40 38 37 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 41 40 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 37 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT