* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/25/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 101 105 104 105 97 90 84 80 76 79 75 83 79 78 74 69 V (KT) LAND 95 101 105 87 66 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 95 102 106 93 70 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 11 15 10 15 15 23 26 31 26 24 11 16 10 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 228 195 230 260 268 233 246 210 232 219 225 225 212 227 259 245 288 SST (C) 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 163 160 165 166 162 162 167 167 168 168 168 170 169 167 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 141 137 139 138 132 131 137 140 145 145 147 156 146 142 147 142 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -51.4 -52.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 8 7 10 6 9 6 9 5 8 5 8 5 9 5 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 69 70 70 65 62 60 53 46 44 47 49 48 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 26 28 24 23 21 23 23 28 26 30 24 23 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 12 23 19 10 -1 16 -8 31 29 42 10 14 7 13 0 -3 -33 200 MB DIV 17 61 67 28 13 45 34 72 23 47 17 36 33 33 -1 15 -28 700-850 TADV -1 3 16 14 4 11 1 -6 -1 -5 -3 -2 1 0 1 6 5 LAND (KM) 137 104 35 -15 -64 -94 -94 -66 -46 -22 -26 -47 -70 -289 -240 -350 -466 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.0 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.9 96.4 96.9 97.1 97.4 97.6 97.6 97.3 97.0 96.5 96.0 95.5 95.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 3 1 0 2 1 2 3 3 8 5 2 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 31 30 39 45 21 21 44 48 50 52 37 9 6 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -22. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -4. -8. -7. -7. -2. -5. -0. -9. -11. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 9. 10. 2. -5. -11. -15. -19. -16. -20. -12. -16. -17. -21. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 26.4 95.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 13.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.16 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.1% 43.9% 36.3% 27.2% 16.5% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 28.9% 47.0% 41.0% 23.7% 10.7% 12.9% 3.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 47.6% 14.7% 10.7% 27.0% 4.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 36.2% 35.2% 29.3% 25.9% 10.4% 9.6% 1.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 27( 39) 0( 39) 0( 39) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 17 18( 32) 0( 32) 0( 32) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 101 105 87 66 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 95 94 98 80 59 34 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 12HR AGO 95 92 91 73 52 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 64 39 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 51 41 38 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 IN 6HR 95 101 92 86 83 72 62 59 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 IN 12HR 95 101 105 96 90 86 76 73 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72