* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 67 76 74 70 63 58 51 47 42 41 38 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 67 76 56 40 32 29 28 27 27 27 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 47 58 67 53 38 31 29 28 27 29 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 4 10 3 5 12 15 17 26 34 41 35 41 40 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -5 -3 -3 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 1 0 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 213 233 263 207 195 243 228 279 238 272 234 260 242 251 246 261 250 SST (C) 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.2 29.6 29.4 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 29.2 30.0 30.1 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 170 170 171 171 170 160 156 166 167 167 167 168 150 168 169 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 152 157 161 160 152 138 132 136 136 138 138 143 123 142 144 157 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.1 -51.3 -50.5 -51.5 -51.0 -52.1 -51.5 -52.2 -51.4 -52.1 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 10 12 8 11 8 10 7 10 8 9 8 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 70 70 67 67 67 69 70 72 71 68 66 60 59 57 57 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 20 23 26 22 20 16 15 12 13 12 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 17 26 17 17 21 6 30 0 6 -20 5 -20 -5 -16 -15 -29 -6 200 MB DIV 12 22 14 14 25 28 70 7 28 14 73 10 53 25 58 30 47 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 3 5 0 15 5 15 0 -4 -7 -12 -5 -6 12 4 LAND (KM) 231 289 351 421 349 193 131 40 -32 -48 -44 -16 -2 -23 22 92 76 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.3 22.8 23.5 24.2 25.5 26.7 27.7 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.8 93.1 93.6 94.2 95.3 96.1 96.7 96.9 96.9 96.7 96.3 95.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 9 9 7 6 5 2 1 1 2 3 1 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 37 48 62 82 79 81 38 28 44 48 46 47 48 36 37 37 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 0. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 8. 13. 8. 5. -1. -4. -9. -8. -9. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 37. 46. 44. 40. 33. 28. 21. 17. 12. 11. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.7 92.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.81 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.86 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 26.7% 14.5% 9.6% 9.3% 17.7% 22.3% 32.8% Logistic: 7.6% 44.1% 35.1% 28.9% 13.0% 43.2% 40.7% 40.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 3.8% Consensus: 4.8% 24.7% 17.1% 13.0% 7.5% 20.4% 21.3% 25.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 45 55 67 76 56 40 32 29 28 27 27 27 23 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 51 63 72 52 36 28 25 24 23 23 23 19 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 44 56 65 45 29 21 18 17 16 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 34 46 55 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT