* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/22/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 52 46 41 36 32 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 58 52 46 41 36 32 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 57 51 46 42 36 32 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 15 18 20 26 31 32 21 22 21 27 30 35 34 21 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 -4 -4 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 2 3 0 1 3 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 251 213 202 204 209 213 214 209 212 214 219 228 226 226 226 244 N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.2 23.6 23.5 23.3 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.2 23.3 23.1 22.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 105 98 97 95 91 87 84 83 85 86 89 91 93 93 81 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 46 43 41 39 35 39 37 35 29 29 29 32 32 29 31 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 17 17 17 16 17 16 14 12 9 6 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 13 11 -5 0 -18 -17 -10 -12 -18 9 6 -2 -36 -54 -66 N/A 200 MB DIV 9 23 22 11 -8 14 4 -8 2 3 7 -3 0 -21 2 9 N/A 700-850 TADV 13 12 10 8 7 10 8 7 4 5 7 3 1 -4 -4 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 1959 1915 1875 1837 1804 1774 1683 1659 1641 1647 1672 1720 1762 1822 1555 1454 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.2 23.1 24.0 24.9 26.4 27.5 28.3 29.0 29.7 30.2 30.7 31.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.4 133.9 134.4 134.9 135.3 136.2 136.6 136.9 137.2 137.8 138.5 139.5 140.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 8 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. -30. -34. -38. -41. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. -30. -35. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -17. -18. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -33. -36. -40. -45. -51. -59. -68. -78. -87. -95. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.3 133.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 574.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##