* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/22/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 74 66 59 52 43 36 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 74 66 59 52 43 36 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 75 66 58 52 43 37 32 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 12 11 13 18 22 32 40 30 28 26 31 35 39 31 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 2 0 -2 -2 0 -2 4 5 7 8 3 3 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 241 255 247 212 204 206 209 214 204 206 210 222 228 234 234 228 N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.2 24.7 24.2 23.6 23.4 22.9 22.4 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.9 23.1 22.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 115 110 105 98 96 90 85 80 80 81 79 82 88 90 87 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 45 46 43 40 39 41 39 37 31 31 29 31 28 27 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 20 18 17 16 15 15 14 12 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 6 15 18 12 0 -16 -21 -14 -19 -25 -7 -23 -24 -36 -56 N/A 200 MB DIV 22 5 11 20 18 7 20 4 0 10 1 11 4 -5 -9 -1 N/A 700-850 TADV 17 19 15 11 14 9 9 8 3 4 2 5 -1 -2 -9 -7 N/A LAND (KM) 1982 1986 1959 1915 1875 1812 1756 1639 1585 1549 1531 1516 1503 1736 1646 1594 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.5 21.3 22.2 23.1 24.8 26.3 27.7 29.0 30.0 30.7 31.2 31.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.3 132.9 133.4 133.9 134.4 135.3 135.9 136.2 136.5 136.8 137.1 137.3 137.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 5 3 3 5 3 3 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -15. -22. -28. -35. -41. -46. -51. -56. -59. -63. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -11. -16. -20. -23. -26. -31. -37. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. -20. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -19. -26. -33. -42. -49. -55. -62. -70. -78. -87. -97.-106.-115.-124.-126. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.6 132.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 732.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##