* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/21/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 122 121 117 109 90 73 58 47 39 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 122 121 117 109 90 73 58 47 39 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 119 115 106 96 77 62 52 44 37 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 4 9 10 7 15 21 35 39 30 29 30 33 33 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 4 3 0 1 -2 0 -3 0 2 9 9 6 4 4 SHEAR DIR 18 356 275 204 210 253 214 204 205 204 201 199 205 207 218 218 216 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.2 25.7 24.3 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.4 22.3 22.1 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.1 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 130 125 120 106 96 94 92 85 82 80 82 85 88 90 90 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.2 1.5 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 53 49 45 44 41 38 41 41 40 33 31 31 32 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 21 21 21 20 18 18 18 17 17 17 14 11 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 15 14 26 30 21 1 -8 -18 -14 -3 -11 4 -1 -4 -23 200 MB DIV 36 33 40 48 37 10 10 5 29 11 15 17 8 3 1 -9 -16 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 4 6 14 10 8 8 11 9 8 4 4 0 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 1914 1936 1962 1966 1973 1946 1855 1773 1707 1601 1567 1535 1511 1612 1622 1681 1658 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.6 21.3 23.0 24.7 26.3 27.8 28.9 29.7 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.4 131.1 131.7 132.2 133.2 134.0 134.7 135.3 135.8 136.2 136.4 136.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -21. -33. -44. -54. -63. -71. -78. -82. -86. -90. -94. -99. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 9. 13. 12. 11. 6. 2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 6. 2. -6. -25. -42. -57. -68. -76. -86. -96.-106.-115.-123.-130.-136. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.1 129.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/21/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 845.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.3% 2.4% 6.2% 4.4% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.3% 0.8% 2.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/21/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##