* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/21/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 102 104 101 97 84 72 62 55 48 43 35 29 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 102 104 101 97 84 72 62 55 48 43 35 29 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 102 103 98 92 77 63 53 45 39 33 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 1 4 7 10 3 10 14 24 29 26 24 28 30 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 1 5 3 5 -2 2 0 1 -2 1 8 4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 96 48 289 253 216 252 223 198 214 205 199 199 196 195 194 198 207 SST (C) 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.0 24.7 24.5 23.5 23.0 22.9 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.9 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 130 127 123 109 108 97 91 90 86 84 84 83 83 89 86 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -52.2 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 55 53 46 45 41 40 41 40 39 35 33 31 31 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 21 21 21 19 18 18 17 18 16 16 13 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -1 9 9 15 19 21 36 17 11 -3 -14 -18 -18 -20 -24 -20 -22 200 MB DIV 28 36 27 41 52 27 10 13 26 19 26 13 10 10 3 2 -11 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 5 4 10 12 8 9 11 11 7 5 5 0 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 1880 1910 1943 1962 1985 1994 1920 1835 1774 1740 1649 1611 1579 1527 1539 1649 1664 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.8 20.2 21.9 23.6 25.1 26.3 27.4 28.3 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.7 129.5 130.4 131.1 131.8 132.8 133.6 134.4 135.1 135.7 136.1 136.3 136.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 6 4 5 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -18. -26. -34. -40. -47. -52. -56. -61. -65. -69. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 7. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -10. -11. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 6. 2. -11. -23. -33. -40. -47. -52. -60. -66. -75. -82. -88. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.6 128.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/21/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 7.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 633.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.20 -1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.3% 24.5% 22.0% 21.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.8% 3.9% 6.3% 4.1% 1.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.3% 9.5% 9.4% 8.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/21/17 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 8 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##