* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 89 90 89 82 75 69 60 55 49 43 35 27 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 85 89 90 89 82 75 69 60 55 49 43 35 27 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 87 90 91 88 79 68 58 49 42 37 31 26 22 18 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 2 3 2 3 8 8 8 14 19 27 28 26 30 25 30 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 1 1 5 1 1 -2 1 -1 -1 -3 5 4 6 3 SHEAR DIR 34 70 307 211 199 225 239 183 206 205 210 208 200 194 196 211 211 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.4 25.2 24.5 24.1 23.3 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.9 22.3 22.3 22.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 135 131 127 114 107 103 95 92 90 88 90 83 82 87 86 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.8 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 62 60 60 55 51 46 43 41 38 39 37 35 32 32 31 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 21 22 22 20 21 20 19 19 18 18 16 13 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -2 10 17 17 25 36 44 33 21 2 -8 1 -13 -9 -19 -18 200 MB DIV 24 30 37 37 51 50 8 16 5 37 12 18 0 3 2 3 -6 700-850 TADV -3 -1 1 3 3 6 14 8 11 10 18 12 10 6 6 2 -4 LAND (KM) 1852 1892 1938 1969 2005 2033 1998 1916 1841 1795 1772 1697 1687 1535 1537 1624 1645 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.2 19.5 21.0 22.6 24.2 25.6 26.7 27.4 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.9 129.9 130.8 131.6 132.8 133.6 134.4 135.1 135.8 136.4 136.7 137.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 8 7 5 4 6 6 3 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -9. -14. -20. -25. -29. -33. -38. -42. -46. -50. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 10. 9. 2. -5. -11. -20. -25. -31. -37. -45. -53. -61. -69. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.2 127.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 478.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 -2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.4% 31.8% 24.5% 23.9% 13.3% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.5% 14.9% 15.1% 11.1% 4.3% 4.4% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.5% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.8% 16.4% 13.4% 11.8% 5.9% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##