* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 73 77 79 76 71 64 58 52 46 40 36 31 23 N/A V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 73 77 79 76 71 64 58 52 46 40 36 31 23 N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 65 68 71 73 73 69 61 53 45 40 35 32 29 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 3 3 4 9 7 6 13 16 22 28 25 23 24 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -3 -2 1 1 1 2 2 -2 0 -2 0 -2 1 5 4 SHEAR DIR 34 22 30 83 192 226 212 244 178 201 212 222 227 231 238 238 248 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.2 25.1 24.5 24.1 23.4 23.1 23.0 22.9 23.0 23.2 23.2 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 141 137 134 125 113 107 103 95 92 90 89 88 90 91 93 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 62 60 56 51 46 42 40 38 37 37 35 29 28 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 19 21 22 21 20 19 17 17 16 16 15 14 10 6 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -13 -6 2 14 26 31 38 37 27 20 -10 -5 1 -9 -19 -25 200 MB DIV 40 28 30 38 34 54 37 0 9 13 12 4 -6 -5 -13 -8 -25 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 3 3 7 14 9 9 10 13 5 8 3 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1701 1769 1827 1873 1923 1992 2022 2002 1931 1856 1807 1782 1701 1697 1748 1742 1771 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.3 18.4 19.7 21.1 22.5 24.0 25.3 26.4 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.5 126.7 127.9 128.9 129.9 131.6 132.8 133.8 134.5 135.1 135.7 136.3 136.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 9 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 17. 19. 16. 11. 4. -2. -8. -14. -20. -24. -29. -37. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.8 125.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING