* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/19/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 55 60 65 69 68 67 61 58 54 47 41 35 27 17 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 55 60 65 69 68 67 61 58 54 47 41 35 27 17 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 50 52 56 57 55 51 46 41 38 34 30 27 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 2 2 7 9 6 8 3 4 14 19 22 24 30 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 3 -2 -2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 19 21 355 292 292 238 219 220 241 277 260 219 217 216 259 252 244 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.5 26.2 25.7 25.5 24.8 24.1 23.0 22.7 22.7 22.4 23.4 23.3 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 148 143 140 126 119 117 110 103 91 88 87 85 95 92 92 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 62 59 57 56 53 49 45 42 40 37 35 31 30 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 21 21 22 23 24 22 22 20 18 17 15 14 11 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -14 -15 -11 -10 7 25 16 27 29 21 11 -32 -36 -15 -13 -24 200 MB DIV 64 45 35 28 6 46 27 42 11 1 4 4 5 1 -6 -1 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 1 0 2 6 5 8 8 8 4 3 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1349 1425 1510 1593 1652 1753 1820 1849 1845 1753 1671 1594 1531 1574 1772 1796 1808 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.3 18.2 19.2 20.2 21.5 23.0 24.4 25.9 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.1 122.5 123.8 125.1 126.4 128.6 130.2 131.2 131.9 132.5 133.0 133.5 134.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 10 8 7 8 8 8 8 6 8 8 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 12 13 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. 7. 3. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 6. 7. 3. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 20. 25. 29. 28. 27. 21. 18. 14. 7. 1. -5. -13. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.9 121.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 33.8% 21.6% 15.9% 11.1% 15.3% 20.6% 0.0% Logistic: 19.6% 44.9% 31.5% 23.6% 7.0% 22.5% 7.3% 0.9% Bayesian: 2.3% 10.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.7% 29.6% 18.4% 13.4% 6.1% 12.8% 9.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##