* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/19/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 53 57 66 72 72 68 65 62 58 53 45 38 27 15 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 53 57 66 72 72 68 65 62 58 53 45 38 27 15 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 50 55 58 59 56 51 46 41 37 32 27 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 3 2 1 5 3 5 4 0 7 16 26 32 38 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 2 -1 0 1 4 2 3 0 2 -4 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 16 11 20 11 247 189 158 252 204 264 330 233 231 229 237 233 238 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.0 27.1 26.0 25.8 25.3 24.6 23.7 22.8 22.8 22.2 22.4 22.4 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 154 149 145 135 123 120 115 108 98 89 90 82 83 82 84 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 64 60 61 61 57 56 53 51 46 41 39 36 33 32 31 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 23 24 24 25 23 21 20 18 16 15 13 11 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -9 -14 -14 -7 3 21 22 34 47 46 23 14 -25 -2 1 -2 200 MB DIV 72 72 52 39 14 34 26 16 29 7 -5 -2 14 2 0 -9 -14 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -1 0 1 3 5 5 10 11 5 12 9 9 6 7 -2 LAND (KM) 1287 1351 1429 1509 1597 1711 1788 1851 1878 1842 1754 1669 1595 1453 1565 1573 1603 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.5 21.9 23.3 24.7 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.9 122.3 123.7 125.0 127.4 129.2 130.7 131.7 132.4 132.9 133.3 133.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 8 7 8 9 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 15 12 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 17. 14. 11. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 2. -4. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 18. 22. 31. 37. 37. 33. 30. 27. 23. 18. 10. 3. -8. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.4 119.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 28.8% 20.8% 15.4% 10.7% 14.8% 20.7% 16.4% Logistic: 17.3% 51.3% 35.0% 27.9% 7.1% 35.9% 12.7% 2.1% Bayesian: 1.6% 11.2% 3.8% 1.2% 0.5% 3.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 10.5% 30.5% 19.8% 14.8% 6.1% 18.0% 11.3% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##