* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/19/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 39 45 52 59 67 67 72 75 79 84 83 89 90 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 39 45 52 59 67 59 38 35 40 45 43 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 38 42 46 51 56 61 36 30 39 45 50 56 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 20 13 12 6 4 6 8 10 10 9 12 12 11 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 0 -1 3 10 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 7 359 1 355 331 344 334 6 9 23 297 308 275 264 264 279 284 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.9 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.9 30.7 30.2 29.6 29.8 29.7 30.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 158 156 150 153 151 157 158 168 171 171 161 164 162 171 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 158 158 156 150 153 151 157 156 162 171 162 148 148 148 158 141 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 14 14 12 12 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 10 11 700-500 MB RH 47 49 52 54 56 62 70 72 78 75 77 76 77 74 77 74 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 12 9 9 8 8 10 9 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 57 69 68 59 59 68 63 39 43 8 26 22 33 44 60 25 -12 200 MB DIV 2 -8 -6 3 26 64 77 64 46 12 22 47 49 26 26 26 30 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -1 4 2 -2 8 0 -3 0 6 2 1 3 2 4 18 LAND (KM) 351 339 259 222 214 367 368 97 99 -11 -119 0 74 206 180 141 61 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.5 15.1 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.0 66.8 68.6 70.5 72.4 76.2 79.7 83.0 85.9 88.3 90.2 91.7 93.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 18 17 16 13 11 9 8 7 5 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 61 76 45 32 81 55 36 47 65 6 40 23 34 37 49 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 31. 35. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -8. -9. -11. -11. -9. -11. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 32. 32. 37. 40. 44. 49. 48. 54. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.7 65.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.15 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.83 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.86 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.4% 9.3% 6.4% 6.0% 10.2% 13.4% 37.3% Logistic: 6.0% 15.0% 8.4% 1.9% 1.1% 6.4% 20.2% 46.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 8.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 22.9% 50.0% Consensus: 3.7% 12.6% 6.5% 2.8% 2.4% 6.0% 18.8% 44.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 37 39 45 52 59 67 59 38 35 40 45 43 49 50 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 37 43 50 57 65 57 36 33 38 43 41 47 48 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 33 39 46 53 61 53 32 29 34 39 37 43 44 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 33 40 47 55 47 26 23 28 33 31 37 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT